Heathrow expects passenger volumes to rise marginally in 2025 to 84.2 million with its terminals almost hitting full capacity amid rising operating costs.
The increase is projected at 0.5% from 83.8 million forecast for this year, up 5.8% on 2023.
However, revenue and profits remain under pressure. Revenue for this year is expected to decline by 5.1% year-on-year to £3.5 billion and adjusted profits [ebitda] down by almost 12% to £1.963 billion.
Adjusted ebitda at Europe’s busiest airport is projected to reduce by 0.6% to £1.952 billion in 2025 with revenue up by 2% to £3.568 billion.
Aeronautical revenue is set to decrease 1.3% to £2.193 billion due to lower charges, while non-aeronautical revenue is expected to rise 7.7% to £1.375 billion, driven by higher passenger volumes.
Operating costs are projected to increase by 5.3% to £1.617 billion “as management initiatives to contain costs are offset by higher people costs due partly to higher national insurance, cost pressures of maintaining resilience while operating close to full capacity and investment in technology and sustainability,” Heathrow said in its December investor report.
“To create value for our customers and unlock growth, we are increasing our investment by over £200 million to £4.5 billion. We will invest over £1 billion annually in both 2024 and 2025, with our investments progressing as planned.”
Heathrow has started consulting with airlines over its next period of charges and regulatory controls by the Civil Aviation Authority. Detailed responses are due to be submitted this month and in January.
Reflecting on the year to date, Heathrow said: “We improved our service levels despite a higher number of passengers, airspace challenges, and now at-capacity terminals.
“With 75% of passengers rating their overall satisfaction as ‘excellent’ or ‘very good’ and nearly 92% of passengers passing through security in less than five minutes, we continue to deliver value for our customers and with our departure punctuality exceeding arrivals, Heathrow is boosting operational performance across the wider aviation industry.”