Interview: ‘We’re in an era of uncertainty’, says Abta chief

The Travel Convention in October in Madeira will offer ways to ‘plot a way forward’ rather than ‘feel battered from all sides’, Abta chief Mark Tanzer explained to Ian Taylor

 

Abta’s theme for this year’s Travel Convention in Madeira, ‘Managing Uncertainty with Confidence’, represents a contrast to last year’s ‘Reasons to be Cheerful’.

 

Most of the major challenges facing the industry have not changed – geopolitical instability, chronic uncertainty, a stalling economy, AI disruption and destination risks, to which now we must add crisis in the Gulf and its impact on fuel prices.

 

Abta chief Mark Tanze noted: “The travel industry is always dealing with some kind of event, but we’re in an era of ongoing uncertainty. Change is coming from a lot of directions and to a degree these changes interact. 

 

Change creates opportunity

“When there are such changes – technological, sociological, even environmental – it does create opportunities. So, how do we seize those to take advantage and plot a way forward rather than feel ‘My God, I’m being battered from all sides’.”

 

Domestically, he said: “We have a new prime minister. But I don’t think the economic fundamentals have changed. We have a very high level of debt. We have high expectations of public services. Plus, we’ve added the need to increase defence spending.

 

"The numbers don’t add up – either we have to pay more tax or accept lower levels of public spending in some areas. 

 

“[The government] trying to shuffle spending from Westminster to the regions doesn’t alter the fact that the money isn’t there. Doing things around the edge in terms of VAT on fuel bills doesn’t change the underlying picture.

 

“Shuffling the cabinet may make a difference in certain departments, but it’s not going to change the big picture.

 

“The Chancellor has found a way of bending the fiscal rules to invest in public housing. But it is still government borrowing and eventually the markets will demand higher interest rates that feed through to mortgages and everything else. So, the cost-of-living squeeze is not going away.”  

 

That said, travel demand has remained surprisingly strong. 

 

Tanzer noted: “It’s a very late booking market, much later than usual, which tests the nerve of tour operators. Demand is there in terms of numbers, but in terms of margin it will be a squeeze. There are some very good deals out there. Even hotels are cutting prices. 

 

“It will be interesting to see where we are by the Convention when we’ll have a picture of what August and September delivered.”

 

He added: “Travel agencies have all the challenges small businesses have. It’s not an easy model. But there are people with money to spend on holidays who want expertise and support. 

The old model is still valid, and the homeworker model has been expanding.”

 

His Convention opening keynote will come in an interview with moderator Jonathan Samuels which will highlight destination risks and the work Abta is doing to address these, particularly with Spain. 

 

Tanzer explained: “These aren’t just environmental risks, but how you get a balanced model between residents, visitors and the commercial benefits of tourism.”

 

Overtourism concerns ’not going away’

He warned that concerns about overtourism “are not going away”, saying: “We saw the recent demonstration in Palma. The way it was reported made it sound as though it was all about overtourism. Knowing the people in Mallorca, it wasn’t. The protests are about broader issues such as housing. But the way it comes across is ‘We’re not welcome’. 

 

“We’re aware this is a challenge. Abta is working with members and destinations to be able to manage the growth of tourism.”

 

Tanzer noted the Spanish approach is that “the risks are not just environmental, but economic and social, and this is very much the way we see it. How do we get all three in harmony? 

 

“Of course, the environment is going to be top of mind when we have record temperatures again across Europe.”

 

He suggested: “The evidence that it’s hotting up means the industry is going to have to think about when people travel. Does it mean we’re going to spread the seasons or where we travel to? 

 

“The industry tends to say, ‘People don’t mind if it’s really hot, the hotter the better.’ But if you take a family on holiday in 40-degree heat, it’s not a great holiday. You can’t sit on the beach. You can’t go out.

 

“I know we come back to climate change and carbon again and again, but it’s a pressing issue for the industry.”

 

He dismisses the idea of sudden shift by holidaymakers to more northerly destinations, pointing out: “The infrastructure is not there. People say, ‘We’ll move north.’ Well, where? 

 

"Galicia is lovely and is cooler than Andalusia, but it’s not built for mass tourism. I’m not even sure they want mass tourism [in Galicia]. They’re not suddenly going to build enough hotels to accommodate people moving from the south of Spain. 

 

“It’s more likely people will spread when they go and travel in April and October rather than July and August if escaping the heat is an issue.”

 

Politics, industry, technology and trends shape Travel Convention agenda

The Convention will open with an appraisal of the geopolitical situation from political journalist and broadcaster Lewis Goodall, who spoke at the 2022 Travel Convention and will look at the forces shaping the political, economic and social currents in turn shaping consumer and business confidence.

 

An industry panel will bring together easyJet Holidays chief executive Gary Wilson, Barrhead Travel chief executive Jacqueline Dobson, and On the Beach chief executive Shaun Morton to discuss ‘Leading through Uncertainty’.

 

Eleanor Winton, founder of business consultancy Foresightfully and former head of KPMG’s Future Institute, will talk about future trends and business strategies.

 

Robbie Hedges of consumer intelligence analyst TrendWatching will look at changing consumer behaviour.

 

Cybersecurity expert Jenny Ratcliffe, who describes herself as a ‘burglar for hire’, will explain why people are a point of vulnerability and how to address that. 

 

Tanzer noted: “Our industry is so tech dependent and connections between booking systems, airports and everything else are so real time, a cyber problem could be a major issue. This has fallen slightly off the radar, but it hasn’t gone away.”

 

Indeed, if anything, cybersecurity is back on the agenda following a succession of reports of AI agents hacking businesses.

 

He said: “AI is moving so fast. We’ve all talked it to death, but I’m constantly surprised how quickly people are picking it up, working with and adapting it.

 

“People are using two [or more] AI systems to give more security around what is generated. I talked to someone who ran something through Claude, saying ‘Do this’, then ran the same thing through Copilot or ChatGPT saying ‘Verify what Claude has done’, then ran the changes back through Claude to verify the changes.”

 

Technology development will also feature in a session on AI and future leadership with Natalie Campbell, chair of the Workforce Development Trust.

 

Tanzer explained: “Natalie will talk about the human capabilities that technology can’t replace [and] how you balance these. Finance people say, ‘We can take this and that out to cut costs.’ But you end up with a desiccated kind of business.”

 

There are huge environmental consequences to the rapid development of AI, of course.

 

Dr Gabrielle Walker, an expert on carbon removal from the atmosphere who spoke at the 2019 Travel Convention, will provide an update on climate change and progress towards net zero. 

 

Tanzer said: “We’ve asked her back to explain what has happened since 2019 and which way we’ve gone on this.” 

 

Host Madeira is investing and repositioning

The five-star Savoy Palace Hotel in Funchal, Madeira, is the venue for the 2026 Convention.

 

Tanzer noted: “The perception of Madeira used to be that it’s old-fashioned and has an older visitor demographic, but they are putting significant investment into tourism – building up the activity side of the island and repositioning for a younger market.

 

“For people who haven’t been to Madeira before or think they know the island, the Travel Convention is an opportunity to see how it has changed.”