Airline traffic forecast to more than double in 20 years

Airline traffic will more than double to hit 10 billion passengers a year by 2045, according to a new projection.

 

The latest global market forecast by Airbus suggests the middle class demographic most likely to fly will increase by 1.4 billion people or 34% in that timeframe.

 

The aircraft manufacturer predicts passenger traffic to grow 3.9% annually over the next 20 years, thanks to global GDP growth of 2.6%, rising urban populations, up by 1.3 billion, and increasing middle classes.

 

Airbus said: “Global air traffic is robust and inextricably linked to world economic growth as well as people’s desire to travel.

 

“Short term disruptions like regional conflicts and high fuel prices are not dampening demand long term as historic data shows.

 

“By 2045, air traffic will more than double, reaching about 10 billion passengers per year.”

 

Travel patterns are evolving due to “robust growth” in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia.

 

“A significant evolution includes increased international migration and family-related passenger travel,” the company noted.

 

Demand for new efficient aircraft also remains strong.  

 

“Of the requirement of 42,060 aircraft in the next 20 years to compensate for 19,820 aircraft replacements of older aircraft and 22,240 for growth, some 81% will be single aisle and 19% widebodies,” Airbus estimated.

 

“This reflects the continued trend for more cost- and CO₂-efficient aircraft.”

 

The company added: “Post-Covid fleet aging is accelerating replacement demand, especially favouring fuel-efficient, flexible, new-generation single aisle and widebody aircraft to profitably open both low-density and longer-haul routes.

 

“By 2045, Airbus forecasts the percentage of the global fleet that will be made up of the newest generation aircraft will reach almost 100% from around 39% in 2026.

  
“Urbanisation is shifting to smaller cities. With a rise in middle classes and the diaspora this will lead to new city pairings made economically viable thanks to increasingly efficient aircraft and growing passenger traffic volumes.

 

“Not only is aviation essential for the transportation of high value, quick to market goods, aviation also connects people for a multitude of reasons across the globe, providing an economic lifeline to many communities.”

 

As a result, the number of smaller urban centres will grow at almost triple the pace of larger ones, reflecting shifting urban populations and an increasing diaspora. 

 

Alongside aircraft efficiencies the Airbus forecasts expanding connectivity beyond trunk routes to smaller and medium city-pairs. 

 

“Routes such as Riga-Tenerife or Melbourne-Alice Springs can be already efficiently served by aircraft like the A220,” Airbus noted. 

 

“Enhanced aircraft range is also opening new city pairs, allowing direct connections. Such routes include Lisbon-Recife with the A321neo, Dublin-Nashville with the A321XLR, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur with the A330neo and Taipei-Phoenix with an A350.”