Demand remains but ‘confidence will weaken the longer the war’

Consumer confidence has been hit by the Iran war and the longer it lasts the worse the impact, say industry leaders, yet demand remains and a raft of offers can be expected to boost bookings once the conflict ends.

Advantage Travel Partnership chief executive Julia Lo Bue‑Said described feedback from members as “mixed”, saying: “People aren’t scared to travel but there is a dent in confidence.”

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She warned: “The longer this goes beyond March, the more it will impact on confidence, particularly in destinations in the headlines for no reason such as Turkey and Greece.” 

However, Lo Bue-Said added: “Once we’re through Easter there will be a focus on summer and I’m sure we’ll see deals to drive interest.”

Consumer ‘hesitation’

At the same time, she said: “Demand is going to outstrip supply this summer. Capacity won’t be anywhere near what was transiting through the UAE, and we’ll see an impact on price. Our message to customers is, if you want a summer holiday, book early.”

Blue Bay Travel chief executive Alistair Rowland reported “some hesitation” among customers and agreed “there isn’t enough capacity and at good prices”, saying: “We expect to lose most of April.” But he reported “a big uplift to the Dominican Republic and Mexico”.

Rowland said: “We need signs of an end [to the war] to save the late season. We’ve not written off summer 2026 – if we see an end, the bounce‑back could be big – but we need to see signs of an end.” If that happens, he said “the UAE, Cyprus, Egypt are likely to be good value”.

Alan Bowen, advisor to the Association of Atol Companies, said: “Business is down, but not by much. Operators are looking at where they can send people.” However, he noted: “Suppliers aren’t helping. Where operators aren’t able to get people to destinations, hotels aren’t giving refunds.”

Foreign Office clarification

Abta director of legal affairs Simon Bunce reported members seeking guidance on “what Foreign Office advice against all but essential travel means”, both for bookings to destinations and transit through them, and on refunds for cancellations “where a flight is cancelled but the hotel is still available”.

He said: “Our advice is to be clear what you’ve sold – a package or separate arrangements. Then take it from there. Work through the regulations and booking terms using Abta guidance and remind customers of the role travel insurance might have.”

Bunce noted: “Members are focused on those immediately due to travel, but customers with holidays in coming months will start to query what it may mean for their trip, [although] it’s difficult to answer that now.”

A VisitBritain consumer survey in the first week of March found 17% of 1,500 UK adults were planning an overseas holiday in April to June, down eight percentage points on a month earlier. However, 33% were planning a July-September holiday abroad – just two points down.

Domestic trip intentions were also down amid increasing concerns over the cost of living, with 53% in March agreeing the “worst is still to come”, up from 47% in February and 43% in January.