Gulf crisis has ‘high’ impact on third of European businesses, survey finds

A survey of the impact of the Gulf crisis on tourism businesses across Europe has found almost one-third reported a ‘high’ impact “requiring significant operational changes” and more than half a ‘moderate’ impact.

The survey by European travel association Etoa in May found disruption “widespread” amid “reduced demand, increased cancellations, later-booking behaviour and heightened price uncertainty”.

Etoa noted “a severe effect on long‑haul and multi‑country itineraries, especially involving Asia-Europe and Australian travel flows” with “rising airfares, fuel surcharges and transport costs eroding margins and, in some cases, making programmes commercially unviable”.

It reported: “Many businesses are carrying financial exposure from non‑refundable services and limited supplier flexibility. While some suppliers initially offered more‑flexible terms, many respondents report standard cancellation and refund conditions have largely been reinstated.”

Etoa concluded many businesses “expect to rationalise their offer, prioritising lower‑risk programmes as uncertainty continues into 2027”.

The reduction in long-haul arrivals to Europe via the Gulf could, in theory, free hotel capacity for European travellers, including UK holidaymakers.

However, Association of Atol Companies advisor Alan Bowen reported little evidence of additional rooms becoming available, saying: “I’m not sure there is really any good news. The market is tough and it’s very late booking.”

Only 13% of Etoa members – of which two-thirds are tour operators, agents or OTAs – reported no impact from the war, compared with 32% a ‘high’ impact and 55% ‘moderate’.

More than two in three (68%) reported reduced demand, 51% more cancellations, 44% changed booking patterns and 40% higher prices.

Etoa noted: “Enquiries and sales have slowed significantly, with weaker pipelines for late 2026 and 2027.”

It added: “Suppliers have largely withdrawn earlier flexibility [on cancellations] and are enforcing standard conditions. Flight disruptions and lack of viable routes are often not accepted as valid grounds for refunds.”

The survey in early May drew responses primarily from operators, agents and destination management companies selling to international markets including North America, Australia and New Zealand, Europe and Asia.