Iata chief warns of jet fuel shortages and ‘potential rationing’

Global air traffic in March rose 2.1% on last year despite the US and Israel’s war on Iran, launched at the end of February, but with “sharp regional differences” according to latest Iata data.

The crisis led Iata director general Willie Walsh to warn of potential fuel shortages and possible “fuel rationing” in Asia and Europe “over the next few months” as he announced the latest figures.

The increase in overall air traffic came despite a 1.7% fall in capacity year on year.

However, international traffic was down 0.6% compared to March 2025, led by a 61% fall in traffic on Middle East carriers, while capacity on international routes fell by 6.2% on last year.

Only a 6.5% rise in domestic traffic compared with March 2025 maintained an overall growth rate, with China and Brazil recording double-digit domestic growth rates.

Iata director general Willie Walsh hailed the continued rise in demand “despite disruptions in the Middle East” while acknowledging “the nearly 61% decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East”

He noted “demand grew by 8% outside of the Middle East” and said: “Everybody’s watching what is happening with jet fuel – both supply and pricing.”

Walsh warned: “We could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf over the next months, especially Asia and Europe.”

He added: “The extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. While this has not impacted March traffic or forward bookings to date, it remains to be seen at what point high prices start to shift passenger behaviour.”

Walsh reported: “So far, the summer is shaping up to be a normally busy time. But airline resilience is being tested and stabilising the supply and price of fuel is crucial.”

He said: “it’s important for regulators to be prepared to grant airlines flexibility on slots considering the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and potential fuel rationing.” 

International markets aside from the Middle East saw 9% growth year on year in the month.

European carriers saw a near 8% increase in demand year on year set against a 3.2% increase in capacity, and traffic between Europe and Asia surged 29% “as direct services replaced traffic transiting through the Middle East”.

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded an 11.5% rise in demand year on year while merely adding 1.5% capacity.

Carriers in North America saw a 3.7% increase in traffic year on year increase in demand compared with a near 1% increase in capacity, with transatlantic traffic growing 3.3%.

Airlines in Latin America recorded 12% growth year on year in the month, and airlines in Africa 19% growth.