Ryanair highlights ‘consumer hesitancy’ as first quarter profits fall by a third

Ryanair echoed an industry-wide late booking trend for this summer amid “consumer hesitancy” while suffering a 34% slump in first quarter profits.

Europe’s largest short-haul airline reported a year on year fall in first quarter net profit to €538 million despite a 6% rise in passenger numbers to 61.3 million.

The no-frills carrier cited a more than doubling in the price of its 20% unhedged jet fuel and a 6% fall in fares “primarily due to the impact of the Middle East conflict” and the first part of the early Easter holidays falling into the final quarter of the previous financial year.

Group chief executive Michael O’Leary noted that revenue for the quarter to June edged up by 1% to €4.48 billion.

But fares “required stimulation as the Middle East conflict led to consumer hesitancy, concerns about EU jet fuel shortages, economic uncertainty and later bookings”.

He added: “Final full year unit costs will depend on the price of our 20% unhedged jet fuel over the remaining three quarters. 

“While summer ‘26 volumes are strong, the booking window remains closer-in than last year which further reduces visibility.  

“Despite a recent, slight, uptick in volumes, and less price stimulation, Q2 pricing is trending modestly down year on year and the final H1 fare outcome is heavily dependent on the strength of close-in bookings in August and September.”

O’Leary admitted that the full year profit after tax (PAT) “remains highly sensitive to adverse external developments, including conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, the price of unhedged jet-fuel, macro-economic shocks and continuing European air traffic control strikes and mismanagement.”     

However, Ryanair remains on track for a 4% rise in carryings this financial year to 216 million passengers.

O’Leary said: “With only 4% full year traffic growth, our scarce capacity is being switched to those states, regions and airports cutting aviation taxes and lowering fees to incentivise growth, such as Albania, Italy, Morocco, Slovakia and Sweden, as we withdraw flights and traffic away from high tax/high cost markets like Austria, Dublin, Germany and regional Spain.” 

He added: “We expect European short-haul capacity to remain constrained until at least 2030 as the two main OEMs [suppliers] remain well behind on aircraft deliveries, Pratt & Whitney engine repair delays continue, EU airline consolidation accelerates and unprofitable airlines hit by higher jet-fuel prices and strong US dollar face a difficult winter. 

“Industry capacity constraints, combined with our widening cost advantage, strong balance sheet, low-cost fuel-efficient aircraft order book and industry leading operational resilience will, we believe, facilitate Ryanair’s sustainable, profitable growth to over 300 million passengers er annum by FY34.”

Ryanair released its winter 2026-27 schedule last week with 80 million seats over a record 1,700 routes across 35 countries, including more than 140 new routes.