Sustainable Aviation downgrades SAF’s contribution to emissions reduction

The industry’s Sustainable Aviation coalition has issued a revised Net Zero Carbon Road Map which significantly lowers the contribution of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) to decarbonisation by 2050 and discounts almost entirely the impact of hydrogen and electric aircraft.

 

Sustainable Aviation calculates the shortfall will be made up by more than doubling the previously estimated contribution of greenhouse gas removals (GGRs) from the atmosphere despite the technology remaining substantially unproven at scale.

 

The coalition – which represents UK airlines, airports, aviation manufacturers, fuel producers and aviation suppliers and includes Abta – published its previous roadmap as recently as 2023.

 

This 2023 Road Map estimated SAF would contribute 39% to reducing the overall carbon emissions from aviation by 2050, that upgrading fleets with the latest, already available aircraft would contribute a 14% reduction and airspace modernisation would contribute 4%.

 

It calculated a further 16% reduction by 2050 would come from the development and deployment of hydrogen and electric-powered aircraft, and there would be a 14% reduction due to reduced demand owing to the increased cost of flying to pay for decarbonisation

 

The remaining 13% of emissions would be addressed initially by emissions trading and, by 2050, by greenhouse gas removal technology.

 

The updated Road Map, released at this week’s Farnborough Air Show, envisages SAF contributing to a 31% reduction by 2050 – eight percentage points less than the estimate three years ago.

 

In line with this, Sustainable Aviation calculates SAF will account for 65% of total UK jet fuel supplies by 2050, down from the 2023 estimate of 75%.

 

It now calculates upgrading airline fleets with the latest existing aircraft will account for 20% of emissions reduction by 2050 – a six-point increase since 2023 – but it has dropped the estimated 16% contribution of future hydrogen and electric aircraft from the calculation.

 

The 4% contribution of airspace modernisation remains unchanged from 2023, but Sustainable Aviation acknowledges this will depend on action beyond the UK.

 

The coalition has revised up the contribution of reduced demand for flying to 15%, but that still leaves 29% of the UK’s estimated aviation emissions by 2050 as ‘residual emissions’ requiring they be removed from the atmosphere by technology yet to be developed.

 

Sustainable Aviation calls for “urgent government action to prevent costs increasing for passengers and the sector losing its competitive edge”.

 

It calls on the government “to fund aerospace innovation, speed up airspace upgrades, make SAF widely affordable and fast-track UK production through the [SAF] Revenue Certainty Mechanism, and create a cost-effective system for carbon removals”.

 

In a statement launching the latest Road Map, Sustainable Aviation insisted: “UK aviation can decarbonise while meeting [its] growth ambitions.”

 

It noted the industry “is already making progress” with average emissions per passenger falling by 22% between 2005 and 2024 despite a 28% increase in passenger numbers.

 

However, it warned: “Without further action the UK would lose its powerhouse footing.”

 

Neil Robinson, chair of Sustainable Aviation, said: “This new Decarbonisation Road-Map sets out the progress the UK aviation industry is making to decarbonise and reach the target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. 

 

“The industry is committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions. However, we cannot reach this goal alone.

 

“To scale the solutions we need, we urgently need the government to match our ambition with decisive policy action and investment certainty.”

 

Sustainable Aviation chief executive Duncan McCourt added: “Sustainable Aviation’s updated Road-Map shows how the industry can remain resilient to evolving global conditions, including pressures on costs, geopolitical developments and challenges in scaling SAF supply and carbon removals.

 

“Reaching net zero aviation requires action from the aviation industry, and from parallel industries in next generation fuels and carbon removals. 

 

“We can deliver if we maintain the strong partnership between the aviation industry, parallel industries and government.”