Younger adults drive rise in long-haul travel and Gulf transit confidence

Consumer confidence to travel long-haul and fly via the Gulf is returning, especially among younger adults, despite little sign of a lasting peace between the US and Iran.

The latest Harris Poll UK research for Travel Weekly, conducted at the end of July among 1,000 UK adults, found 11% now ‘much more likely’ to book a long-haul holiday, more than two percentage points up on June.

There was also a two-point rise to 11% in those ‘very comfortable’ about taking a holiday in the United Arab Emirates, and a three-point rise to 16% in those ‘fairly comfortable’ to do so – with 28% saying they would be ‘comfortable’ to transit via the Gulf, up from 25% in June.

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Three out of five (60%) said they feel confident to travel abroad now, up from 56% in June and 49% in April.

However, the rise in confidence appears higher among adults aged 18-34 – with 34% of this age group saying they are ‘very likely’ to travel overseas in the next three months compared with 22% of 35-54-year-olds and 21% of those aged 55 and over.

One in four 18-34-year-olds (24%) said they would be ‘very comfortable’ taking a holiday in the Gulf, compared with 8% of 35-54-year-olds and only 2% of over-55s. Similarly, 19% of 18-34s would be ‘very comfortable’ to transit via the Gulf compared with 7% of 35-54-year-olds and 3% of over-55s.

The survey found a small decline in July over June (44% versus 46%) in the proportion of adults planning a holiday abroad in the next three months, but that is to be expected when heading towards the end of the season.

The data suggests no change at all since April in the proportion planning a UK break (46%), despite media reports of a boom in domestic bookings.

August trading ’phenomenally late-booking’

Alan Bowen, advisor to the Association of Atol Companies, described August trading as “phenomenally late-booking”, saying: “There is business, but you have to fight for it. People are booking within 14 days [of departure].”

He said: “I suspect easyJet and Ryanair are finding it difficult to price. They won’t know whether to hold prices or discount on the last 30% [of seats].”

Travel Village Group chief executive Phil Nuttall reported demand “holding up”, saying: “There are deals out there, [but] I’ve seen nothing to tell me we’re going to see a real slowdown.”

Protected Trust Services managing director Emma Collis noted: “Some members report clients are still nervous about the Middle East, with those wanting Australia or the Indian Ocean not wanting to go via Dubai or Doha.”

She described trading in the last week as “mixed”, with enquiries up but bookings down week on week while remaining 41% up on the same week last year.

Advantage Travel Partnership bookings were flat week on week in early August while 13% up on the same week last year and 5% up in value, according to commercial director John Sullivan, who noted Middle East bookings “remain soft for near departures”.

The Harris Poll UK research was conducted on July 23-30.