Consumer confidence rallies but booking windows shrink

Consumer confidence to book overseas summer holidays has jumped significantly since late April, according to exclusive consumer tracking data.

The monthly tracker survey of more than 1,000 UK adults, conducted by The Harris Poll UK for Travel Weekly, revealed the proportion of people planning a holiday in the next three months rose to 42% in late May, up from 36% in April.

While overall confidence to travel abroad remained stable – with just over half (51%) expressing confidence – there has been a notable recovery in travellers’ willingness to fly to or via the Gulf region.

Almost one in four respondents (24%) said they would be comfortable holidaying in the Gulf, up from 20% in April and 16% in March, while 27% said they would feel comfortable transiting through a Gulf state.

The findings tally with separate consumer data released by Abta to coincide with its Travel Matters conference in London this week.

The association’s research found 64% of 2,000 respondents are planning an overseas trip in the next 12 months.

It also highlighted shrinking booking windows, with 30% of those planning to travel this summer intending to book just two to four weeks in advance and 10% expecting to book less than a fortnight before departure.

Abta chief executive Mark Tanzer told the conference: “The intention to travel is still strong, but there is evidence of apprehension at a time of real challenge for the UK economy and UK households.”

He argued: “The industry can’t float detached from the wider economy. The economy is flatlining. The national debt is sky-high. Health and care spending are going to increase. But the government must do everything it can to allow businesses to breathe and grow.”

Deloitte UK chief economist Debapratim De noted that while the Gulf crisis had caused “the largest oil supply disruption in the history of oil markets, the surprising thing is that oil prices have not risen more”.

De ascribed this to the global economy “becoming much more efficient”, Middle East oil becoming “relatively less important”, the increasing use of renewables and “significant stockpiles” of fuel.

This had created “significant resilience” in the market, De said, adding: “While the energy shock means lower growth and higher inflation, the inflation shock is likely to be much shorter-lived than when Russia invaded Ukraine, because the underlying price pressures are weaker.”

However, he warned: “If we don’t see an opening of the Strait of Hormuz by the end of July, we’ll probably see some ‘demand destruction’.”

On the Beach chief executive Shaun Morton told the conference that despite macroeconomic pressures, the travel sector remains robust.

“The travel industry is prone to shocks,” Morton said. “But the industry and consumers always show resilience and adjust, and the adjustment creates a new normal.”

He noted that a clear trend of shortening lead times had accelerated this year, adding: “We’re seeing lots of price and promotional activity. It’s a very competitive market.”

But Morton insisted the outlook was far from bleak. “Travel matters to people. It’s not doom and gloom,” he said. “I see an opportunity for the package market to grow. People know their holiday is protected, that any disruption will be managed and, if it can’t go ahead, they’ll get their money back.”

The Harris Poll UK surveyed 1,006 UK adults between May 19-26.