Airlines likely to ‘trim frequencies and ground aircraft’ in winter due to high fuel costs

High fuel costs could mean airlines axing more frequencies and grounding more aircraft than usual this winter, a leading aviation expert has warned.

European and US airlines are likely to act as weaker services become uneconomic following the summer, according sector analyst John Strickland.

Strickland, who heads JLS Consulting, made the projection against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict and fluctuating fuel prices.

Airlines normally operate fewer flights during the winter, when weaker demand can leave them with spare capacity. They also typically use lower fares to stimulate bookings.

However, Strickland believes high fuel costs will make it more difficult for carriers to justify operating marginal services this year.

Speaking at a World Aviation Festival webinar, he said: “No matter how much airlines reduced prices to stimulate demand, they still wouldn’t be covering the cost of the higher price of fuel. And I think we’ll see more planes on the ground as a result.

“I think what we’ll see this winter is a higher level of cancellations. I don’t see airlines suddenly cutting prices left, right, and centre in order to stimulate demand.”

Some markets and cabin classes have already seen greater price increases than others, while individual airlines’ exposure varies according to their jet fuel hedging capabilities and ability to pass additional costs on to passengers.

Despite the pressure, Strickland said airlines had so far prevented the crisis from developing into the immediate supply breakdown some initially feared, with many carriers finding alternative sources of fuel or using hedging strategies to shield themselves from the full extent of short-term price increases.

The number of services removed from schedules has so far been relatively modest, he noted.

However, these decisions are expected to become more difficult as the industry moves beyond the peak summer period.

Airlines are continuously assessing booking levels and individual route performance to determine which frequencies remain viable.

The warning followed Iata forecasting that jet fuel costs will rise by nearly 40% to $350 billion in 2026, with fuel accounting for 31.4% of total operating expenses.

Strickland will continue the conversation at the World Aviation Festival, held on October 13-15 in Lisbon.