The government is “significantly underestimating” the effectiveness of air passenger testing schemes, according to new analysis to be submitted to its Global Task Force.
A ‘test and release’ scheme under consideration on five, seven or eight days could work for the shorter period while boosting safe travel to and from the UK.
New independent research from consultancy Oxera and health care firm Edge Health estimates that a single test on arrival detects between 54% and 76% of infected travellers, compared with only 7% claimed by ministers.
The findings are based on actual testing schemes in place in different parts of the world, including Iceland, Canada, France and Jersey rather than “theoretical” models.
The new analysis has been submitted to the Taskforce, which is expected to report its recommendations to the prime minister in early November despite the new national restrictions announced over the weekend, including a ban on most outbound travel until December 2.
Oxera and Edge Health will publish final updated modelling on passenger testing effectiveness later this month, using the latest data aligned to real-world evidence.
Michele Granatstein, partner at Oxera and head of its aviation practice, said: “These results, based on real-world testing schemes, are significantly higher than the 7% estimated by PHE [Public Health England].
“The analysis provides further evidence that the UK government is significantly understating the effectiveness of testing on arrival schemes.”
Edge Health co-founder and director George Batchelor added: “The evidence from other countries suggests how beneficial a testing regime is when compared to a blanket 14-day quarantine policy, like we have in the UK.
“The combination of testing with a short quarantine period would also be effective, in advance of a common international standard on testing, with data from Iceland providing clear evidence that there is little to be gained by introducing a seven-day period, over a five-day one.”
More than 30 countries, including Portugal, Cyprus, Italy and Germany, have introduced a form of passenger testing.
France and Portugal require no quarantine on arrival if individuals can show a negative test result from a period of 72 hours before boarding a flight.
In other cases, travellers from high-risk countries are required to take a test a certain number of days after arrival and can then be released from quarantine subject to a negative test result.