More than 200,000 travel industry jobs across the UK are predicted to remain unfilled by the end of the year.
New analysis by the World Travel and Tourism Council claims to show for the first time the “massive” impact staff shortages could have on the UK’s economic recovery.
Data compiled by Oxford Economics for WTTC looked at staff shortages across the UK and other major travel markets, including the US, Spain, France, Italy and Portugal, between July and December 2021 and 2022.
All countries showed a significant shortfall, with employment demand starting to outstrip the available labour supply.
Travel and tourism businesses have been left struggling to fill available job vacancies as unemployment rates fall and demand rises.
The UK alone is predicted to see a shortfall of around 12%, with as many as one in eight job vacancies left unfilled.
WTTC president and chief executive Julia Simpson said: “The UK’s economic recovery could be jeopardised if we don’t have enough people to fill these jobs as travellers return.
“If we cannot fill these vacancies, it could threaten the survival of travel and tourism businesses up and down the UK. Companies dependent on tourism have been hanging on for the upside, but this is just another blow that many may not survive.”
Reinstating travel restrictions, such as the recent measures aimed at curbing the spread of the Omicron variant, will not stop the virus and only damage livelihoods, the WTTC warned.
Since the start of the pandemic, the UK job retention scheme paid furloughed workers 80% of their pre-pandemic income, with workers earnings up to a maximum of £2,500 a month.
As a result, the fall in employment was not as sharp as the fall in demand for the sector, leading to a reduction of only 6.5% in direct travel and tourism employment in 2020, which equates to 111,000 job losses.
As the demand for travel began to strengthen during the second half of 2021, in line with easing of restrictions and the recovering domestic market, the squeeze on labour has been unable to match the rising demand.
According to the report, demand for jobs is forecast at nearly 1.7 million in the second half of 2021, with labour shortages projected at 205,000, equating to one in eight unfilled vacancies.
The labour market next year is expected to remain tight with a forecast shortage of 15,000 workers.
The WTTC report outlines solutions for governments and businesses to tackle the looming crisis of labour shortages, recognising the impact of furlough schemes.
These include facilitating labour mobility and remote working, providing social safety nets, up-skilling and re-skilling the workforce and retaining talent, and creating and promoting education and apprenticeships.
A recent report by the tourism body revealed the impact the pandemic has had on the travel and tourism sector with 62 million total jobs lost globally.
However, the proactive measures and action by many governments enabled the sector to save millions of jobs and livelihoods at risk through various job retention schemes.
But staff shortages represent a key issue for the sector globally, and the problem is likely to remain while issues around supply and demand are set to gradually adjust during 2022.
The sector’s recovery and economies around the world depend on businesses and government’s ability to solve this “critical issue” to meet the returning demand for travel, according to the WTTC.