‘Cruisezilla’ ships capable of carrying 10,500 passengers could be sailing by 2050, a new study forecasts.
The biggest vessels sailing today are already twice as large as they were in 2000.
Royal Caribbean International’s 7,600-passenger Icon of the Seas, launched in January, comes in at almost 250,000 gross tonnes but ships could be as large as 345,000 gross tonnes in 25 years’ time.
The prediction came in a report by green travel lobby group Transport & Environment (T&E) based on data from shipping consultants Clarksons.
The number of cruise ships has also increased more than twenty-fold from only 21 in 1970 to 515 vessels today.
T&E said: “While cruise vacations still maintain an image of luxury, they are becoming a mainstream holiday option in developed countries, with nearly 36 million holidaymakers projected to take a cruise voyage in 2024.”
But it added: “As a result of such rapid growth, these floating cities emit more greenhouse gases and pollutants than ever before.
“Between 2019 and 2022, CO2 emissions from cruise ships in Europe grew by 17% despite the Covid-19 pandemic, and methane emissions surged by 500%.”
The rapid growth in cruise holidays and increase in ship sizes “comes at a significant environmental cost,” T&E claimed as it called on the industry to invest in green technologies to reduce their impact on the planet and local air pollution.
Many cruise operators are switching to liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an alternative to traditional shipping fuels like heavy fuel oil. LNG-powered ships make up 38% of global cruise ship orders today.
However, T&E said: “While LNG emits less pollutants and CO2 when burned, it releases methane, a greenhouse gas over 80 times more potent than CO2. Methane slips from LNG engines can make these ships more harmful to the climate than traditional shipping fuels.”
T&E estimated that green e-fuels could power almost 4% of European shipping in 2030.
The limited availability of e-fuels and their refuelling infrastructure should be less of an issue for the cruise ships, as they sail on the same routes with clear schedules, making their refuelling needs and timings predictable and relatively easy to plan, according to the organisation.
“Cruise ships are currently exempt from fuel duties, corporate taxes and most of the consumer taxes that other modes of transport are subject to,” T&E said.
“A €50 ticket tax on a typical cruise ticket would bring in €1.6 billion globally, according to the analysis. This could provide crucial climate finance and ensure that luxury forms of travel are taxed.”
The group’s sustainable shipping officer Inesa Ulichina said: “Today’s cruisezillas make the Titanic look like a small fishing boat. How much bigger can these giants get?
“The cruise business is the fastest growing tourism sector and its emissions are quickly getting out of control.
“The only green and scalable solution for decarbonising maritime activities is e-fuels.
“Cruising is a luxury business and operators must take responsibility for their climate impact. If they want to avoid becoming increasingly unwanted visitors, they must clean up their act.”