Trump tariffs adding ‘heightened uncertainty’ to transatlantic travel, trade body warns 

President Donald Trump’s US trade tariffs have added “heightened uncertainty” to transatlantic travel, the European Travel Commission  (ETC) has warned.

Europe is bracing itself for a potential dip in American visitors this year as a result.

The ETC said: “Although Europe remains a leading long-haul destination, fluctuations in the euro/US dollar exchange rate and rising travel costs may soften US demand. 

“This decline matters as the US accounted for 9% of global travel pre-pandemic, and last year, Americans made up over a third of Europe’s long-haul arrivals.

“Despite these headwinds, US travel to Europe continues to perform well in early 2025, with over 80% of reporting destinations recording year-on-year growth in Q1.

“Some offsetting effects may also emerge, including a shift away from travel to the US - particularly from China - and an increase in short-haul travel within Europe, as more travellers choose to stay within the region amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.”

The ETC, which represents the continent’s national tourism organisations, noted that demand for value-for-money destinations and off-peak travel remains strong, “reflecting ongoing price sensitivity among travellers”. 

However, the organisation added: “While performance so far in 2025 has been stable, the economic outlook has become more uncertain. Rising prices, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the introduction of new US tariffs are expected to influence traveller sentiment and spending habits as the year progresses.

“Looking at travel expenditure, the latest estimate for 2025 suggests that travellers are expected to spend around 14% more across Europe than in 2024. With spending growth projected to outpace the increase in arrivals, this may reflect a higher average spend per visit.”

International tourist arrivals increased by 4.9% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in last year, with nights up 2.2% .

ETC president Miguel Sanz said: “Europe’s tourism sector continues to show extraordinary resilience, and the latest data highlights how European tourism is responding to shifting traveller priorities. 

“We are seeing strong interest in value-for-money destinations and a growing demand for travel outside the traditional peak season. 

“These trends reflect cost-consciousness, but also a broader desire for more balanced and authentic travel experiences. 

“As uncertainty grows globally, Europe’s ability to offer diversity, connectivity, and dependable quality puts the region in a strong position to remain a preferred destination worldwide.”