UK-US travel stagnates as overall visitor numbers decline

The UK market to the US appeared to defy fears of a so-called ‘Trump slump’ in 2025, though growth in air arrivals largely stagnated at 0.5%.

The performance of the UK market comes despite an overall annual decline in overseas arrivals of 2.5%, with that decline set to increase further once arrivals from Canada are factored in.

Official US government figures for the year to date at the end of November showed the Canadian market 21.7% down, with the Financial Times reporting an overall decline of 4.2% inclusive of Canada by year-end.

The FT quoted Erik Hansen, a senior vice-president at the US Travel Association, as saying the US was the only major destination in the world to be tracking a decline in international visitor spending, with an overall decline of about 11 million visitors equating to $50 billion in lost spending.

Hansen added: “It’s a tremendous impact. Even a single percentage point that we lose means billions of dollars, it means hundreds of thousands of jobs.”

Arrivals from Western Europe overall in 2025 were down 3.7% at 12.6 million, with the UK accounting for 4.6 million of those visitors. Arrivals from the UK in December were 4.1% down at 319,162.

The German and French markets were down significantly, at 11.3% and 6.8% respectively, while the Italian and Spanish markets increased by 5.3% and 1.5%.

The UK remains by far the largest overseas market for the US, at almost double second-placed India, which accounted for 2.1 million visitors in 2025.

Reports from the trade in recent months have offered conflicting views of the market. Some agents have cited increasing reticence to travel in the wake of the Trump administration’s policies and concerns over affordability, while others have reported strong sales and continued demand for the destination.

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) recently warned that proposed changes to the US Esta programme, requiring wider social media disclosures, could further hit international travel demand and weaken the American travel and tourism economy.

Tourists to the US from countries including the UK could be asked to reveal their social media activity from the last five years, according to proposals from the US government.

The WTTC says its research suggests the move could lead to losses in visitor spending of up to $15.7 billion, and up to 157,000 jobs lost.