Ryanair profits slip in face of ‘baseless’ €256m Italian direct-sell fine

Ryanair quarterly profits slipped 22% as the airline faced a “baseless” Italian competition authority fine over its direct-sell policy in the country.

 

Europe’s largest short-haul carrier reported a third quarter net profit of €115 million against €149 million in the same period a year earlier.

 

The no-frills airline giant took a €85 million exceptional charge as a provision for about 33% of the €256 million Italian fine imposed by the Italian Competition Authority (AGCM).

 

Group chief executive Michael O’Leary said he remained confident that the penalty would be overturned on appeal. 

 

He noted that it “ignores and contradicts” a Milan Court of Appeal ruling in January 2024 which ruled that Ryanair’s direct distribution model  “undoubtedly benefit[s] consumers” by leading to lower fares; is “economically justified in terms of containing operating costs, and eliminating the costs associated with intermediation in ticket sales”; and  “contribute[s] to…..a direct channel of communication…for any possible need for information and updates on flights”.

 

The airline saw passenger numbers rise by 6% year on year to 47.5 million in the third quarter of 2025, with average fares up 4% to €44 as revenue rose 9% to €3.2 billion.

 

This was thanks to a strong October school half-term and close-in Christmas and new year bookings.

 

Ryanair now expects passenger volumes for the current financial year to grow by 4% to almost 208 million due to strong demand and earlier than expected deliveries of new Boeing 737s. 

 

The group had 206 of the new generation aircraft in its fleet on 643 on December 31, with a final four due for delivery by the end of February.

 

O’Leary said that Boeing expects certification for its higher capacity Max-10 variant during summer 2026 and was “increasingly confident” that contracted delivery dates for Ryanair’s first 15 aircraft in spring 2027, with 300 due to be delivered by March 2034. 

 

He forecast that European short-haul capacity to remain constrained to at least 2030 as the big two aircraft manufacturers remain “well behind on aircraft deliveries, Pratt & Whitney engine repair delays continue for many Airbus operators, EU airline consolidation accelerates and unprofitable airlines withdraw capacity from markets where they are unable to compete with Ryanair’s lower costs”. 

 

The airline is “cautiously guiding” to a profit of between €2.13 billion and €2.23 billion before exceptional charges for the 12 months to the end of March - up from €1.61 billion the previous year. 

 

Full-year fares are expected to exceed 7% growth previously guided by 1% or 2%.

 

O’Leary added: “Industry capacity constraints, combined with our widening cost advantage, strong balance sheet, low-cost aircraft order book and industry leading ops [operational] resilience will, we believe, facilitate Ryanair’s controlled profitable growth to 300 million passengers p.a. by FY34.     

 

“This winter, we’ve allocated Ryanair’s scarce capacity to regions and airports cutting aviation taxes and incentivising traffic growth - such as Albania, Italy, Morocco, Slovakia and Sweden - by switching flights and routes away from high cost, uncompetitive markets like Austria, Belgium, Germany and regional Spain.  

 

“This trend continues into summer ’26, with over 106 new routes on sale, including three new bases in Rabat, Tirana and Trapani.” 

 

However, the final outcome for the current financial year “remains exposed to adverse external developments in Q4, including conflict escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East, macro-economic shocks and any further impact of repeated European ATC [air traffic control] strikes and mismanagement.”