Tui Group’s chief executive predicts holidaymakers will see “great” late offers for the eastern Mediterranean this summer, while prices in the west remain stable or could increase.
Commenting on prospects for the late booking market, Sebastian Ebel said: “I think that the western Mediterranean countries will see very stable prices, as they are very well booked.
“You may even see in the late price increases, including Greece, which has done quite well.
“If you want to go to the western Mediterranean, you should be prepared – the longer you wait – to pay even higher prices.
However, there will be “great offers” in other countries such as Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt “because there is still a lot of capacity”.
He said the prospect of good discounts may also apply to eastern long-haul destinations because of the problems caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
Ebel made his comments as he talked about Tui Group’s first-half results, which showed booked revenues for this summer were down 7% compared with 2025 for its tours and airline, falling to 10% down for the UK market.
The group said this reflected “in particular the impact of the Iran war, which has led to a shift in customer demand from eastern to western Mediterranean destinations, with customers demonstrating increased caution and booking closer to departure dates”.
The group said it has “flexed” its business and cut risk capacity by 4% to reflect the geopolitical and competitive environment.
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Ebel pointed to recent research showing summer holidays remain a top priority and 45% of consumers planning a holiday are yet to book this season. Of these consumers, 38% are expected to book between August and October.
He said people are more hesitant about booking further out but short-term bookings “are extremely strong”.
“This gives us the confidence that this year is not lost, but there are a lot of opportunities,” he added.
“People book when they think about travelling tomorrow, in a week, in two weeks, in three weeks – they are very much hesitating when it comes to two months, three months.”
He noted the research showed people’s intent to travel remains the same as a year ago and there has been no decline “despite all the issues”.
Another factor could be the weather in northern Europe, he said, noting how it was raining in Hanover, Germany, where Tui Group has its headquarters.
“If we have a rainy, cold summer, it has always been good for business,” he commented.
“When it’s raining in May, June, people then tend to book for July, August.”
He said the market in the Middle East is “in a way dead” because of the impact of the war, and connecting onwards to destinations such as the Maldives, Seychelles and Thailand is also difficult.
Commenting on sales via high street travel agents, he said he is a “big fan” as agencies bring “a lot of value” despite higher distribution costs.
“Customers go there early, and retailers, in general, are able to upsell the product,” he said, adding that Tui is introducing AI tools for agents to help them have the “best information” alongside their “personal knowledge and reassurance”.
Ebel said Tui’s first global loyalty programme – Smiles Reward Club – will be introduced to the UK and other European markets by 2027, following a successful trial Finland, where it was launched in March.
He said the group has seen no impact following the news about the hantavirus-hit MV Hondius.
The group’s cruise brands, including Marella, had seen a “very strong” H1 performance, even though Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 were stuck in the Emirates for 10 weeks, leading to costs of €20 million, he added.