Tourism to Cuba has reached a pivotal moment

Thirty minutes after the Foreign Office revised its travel guidance for Cuba to “essential travel only“, our UK and Cuban team received a WhatsApp message from three well-travelled ladies who were concluding a birthday celebration trip across the island. 

 

“Thank you all for the most amazing trip to Cuba – everything was just perfect,” they wrote. “The special surprises and friendships forged created a truly once-in-a-lifetime experience.”

 

Before the pandemic, Cuba welcomed more than 240,000 UK visitors annually, with regular direct flights with Virgin Atlantic and TUI Airways. Last year, however, that number fell to fewer than 20,000 UK visitors. 

 

And, yet, the essence of Cuba remains unchanged – its breathtaking beaches, dramatic scenery, classic American cars, vibrant music, colonial history and unmistakable culture continue to captivate travellers. 

 

However, Cuba has become a victim of geopolitics in a world that seems to be engaged in disputes. Tourism to the island has certainly been affected by the policies of the US, its close neighbour, most notably what many refer to as the smokescreen of the Esta ruling.

 

Now Cuba faces a very uncertain next few months as the oil tap has literally been turned off. The biggest victims remain the local people, who are so welcoming, resilient and friendly.

 

It’s estimated that more than 500,000 people are closely associated with the tourism industry, and their earnings filter through society as they financially support family members and friends.

 

The Cubans now face significantly reduced income and mass job losses, long daily blackouts in their houses, no fuel, very high prices for food and daily requirements, and as the Caribbean summer approaches it’s really going to be a very difficult time for them.   

 

By starving Cuba of oil, the US is looking for changes in the way the island is governed. It certainly seeks more control and influence over a Caribbean neighbour that has for decades been a thorn in its side. It hopes this strategy can be achieved through protests within the local population leading to a weakening of the government, which will then come to the negotiating table.   

 

Is the light at the end of the tunnel already becoming visible? 

 

There are growing reports of secretive dialogue between the US and Cuba taking place in Mexico and even in recent days some mutterings of compromises.

 

The next few months could see some type of initial agreement weighted in favour of the US, which does have Cuba in a stranglehold. 

 

This could focus on further and quicker expansion of Cuba’s private sector, which in the tourism sector could mean more investment in the fantastic private accommodation known as casas particulares, as well as more private restaurants, bars and activity providers.  

 

The US will seek a fast-track route to invest in tourism-related infrastructure, and while large-scale projects would be years away (think Trump-owned golf courses), we could quickly see US hotel chains taking ownership of beach hotels and providing a much-needed capital investment to improve them. 

 

If agreements are made then the oil will flow from US-controlled Venezuelan refineries, securing better conditions for the local people and opening the island again to solid transport links and even a return to the much-needed domestic flight network.

 

Will the US embargo be lifted? It may partially, and there might not be the need to try to force the world from visiting Cuba through the Esta ruling. As with even small-scale US in Cuba, they will need international visitors.

 

We have reached a pivotal moment.