CAA unveils consultation on shortlist of models for Heathrow expansion

The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has launched a consultation on a shortlist of regulatory models that could apply to capacity expansion at Heathrow.

The regulator said this consultation follows a working paper, published in November 2025, which explored whether an alternative model for capacity expansion could better serve the interests of consumers using the airport.

The working paper detailed the case for changing the current regulatory model at Heathrow, a qualitative framework for evaluating options and a longlist of potential regulatory models.

This list was developed based on submissions from stakeholders, including Heathrow Airport Limited, hotel group Arora and Heathrow Reimagined campaign group, and through exploring regulatory models used across other industries and internationally.

The consultation narrows those options to a shortlist of models that the regulator proposes to explore in greater detail in subsequent stages, including one model that would likely depend on the necessary planning consents being granted to an alternative developer.

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The shortlisted models include:

• Enhancements to the existing framework, with a package of measures to strengthen the current regulatory approach, including improvements to capital expenditure governance, incentives and scrutiny of Heathrow’s procurement processes.

• A longer-term price control model, looking at a longer-term framework for regulation to provide greater flexibility to support cost effective longer-term financing at the airport.

• Competitive delivery models that could create new obligations on Heathrow Airport Limited to competitively tender elements of the capacity expansion programme, while retaining overall responsibilities for the coordination and financing of expansion.

• Alternative developer model that could involve competition from an alternative developer that would design, build, finance, own and operate an asset, such as a new terminal.

The alternative developer could directly provide services to airlines and recover its revenues from them, in direct competition with Heathrow Airport Limited. Such a model would most likely be dependent on an alternative developer being granted permission through the Development Consent Order planning process.

Surinder Arora, founder and chairman at Arora Group, said:  “Two years ago competition at Heathrow wasn’t on the cards and now is very much alive and kicking because the case for change is so strong. We welcome this consultation from the CAA.”

The consultation will run until June 15. The CAA will issue a high-level update on the outcome of this consultation in July, with a document following in the autumn that will set out further steps for detailed work.

The government is also expected to consult on revisions to the Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS) by July 2026.