New York downgrades forecast for UK arrivals

New York City has downgraded its forecast for UK visitor numbers in 2025 by more than 180,000 following a report which predicted an 8.7% decline in international arrivals to the US this year.

New York now expects to welcome 1.01 million UK visitors this year – down from the 1.19 million forecast in February and a slight decline on the 1.06 million who visited in 2024.

Julie Coker, chief executive of New York City Tourism + Conventions, said: “Based on the latest data from leading industry research provider Tourism Economics we have adjusted our 2025 visitor forecast to reflect a projected total of 64.1 million visitors, a downward revision of 3.1 million from our previous forecast of 67.2 million in February.  

“The latest domestic visitor projections have been revised from 53.1 million to 52 million visitors in 2025. The international forecast has been adjusted from 14.1 million to 12.1 million.

“Although international visitors make up 20% of total visitation, they account for approximately 50% of all visitor spending, making them essential to New York City’s economy.

“Combined, this downward revision represents an estimated loss of over $4 billion in direct spending.”

Latest data from the US Department of Commerce suggests the UK market in the year to the end of May is up 2.7% at 1.57 million, with May 2.4% ahead of the same month in 2024.

However, some operators have reported fluctuating bookings, with uncertainty over the impact of the Trump administration’s global policy and affordability.

Coker added: “New York City will address these challenges through continued sales, marketing and communications strategy grounded in our diverse product mix that speaks to travellers of all budgets, ages and interests.”

Speaking at the IPW conference in Chicago, Coker outlined the city’s focus on the luxury travel segment, including the creation of a luxury guide for the travel trade and a dedicated B2B hub focused on luxury product.

Coker revealed affluent travellers make up 17% of New York’s overall visitor numbers, with the UK the number one international market for both mainstream and affluent travellers.