Research highlights rising consumer confidence and demand for packages

The number of UK consumers ‘very likely’ to take an overseas holiday between now and September rose significantly after the US‑Iran peace deal, according to research for Travel Weekly, though the deal is now under threat after strikes from both sides in recent days.

Almost three out of 10 respondents (29%) said they are ‘very likely’ to take a holiday in the next three months in a post‑peace agreement poll, more than three percentage points up on the previous survey in May.

A three-point rise represents more than 1.6 million adults and potentially as many households.

The same survey, by The Harris Poll UK, found a 10-point fall since April in the proportion of respondents ‘not confident’ to travel abroad.

The monthly poll was carried out on June 16-22 following the announcement of a US-Iran deal on June 15. The deal was signed on June 17, and the Foreign Office (FCDO) relaxed its advice against all but essential travel to the UAE, Qatar and other Gulf states on June 18.

The results also suggest a sharp rise in demand for packages following the war, with one in three respondents (32%) – and 43% of those planning to travel – saying they are ‘more likely than usual’ to book an Atol‑protected holiday ‘given the situation in the Middle East and potential for disruption’.

However, the survey found no increase in intention to travel beyond Europe and a two-point fall since mid‑May in the proportion ‘comfortable’ to fly via the Gulf or to take a holiday in the region.

Those findings were broadly confirmed by Alistair Rowland, chief executive of Blue Bay Travel, who said the relaxation of Foreign Office advice “didn’t create a bounce and still hasn’t”. But he said: “Where we were washing out [rolling over or changing] hundreds of bookings each month [due to the advice], now we’re not.”

Rowland described bookings as “weighted towards very late” but suggested there is “more confidence” to travel via the UAE this winter.

Rebecca Rutter, regional sales manager at Seaside Travel, which has 13 outlets in the northeast of England, reported “a notable change in customer confidence” with “good booking volumes” last week – 44% for this summer and 38% for next.

Advantage Travel Partnership commercial director John Sullivan also reported “positive growth”, with sales last week up 17% year on year and July and August departures accounting for 35% of bookings. However, long-haul was “less strong”, he said, “despite the changes to FCDO restrictions”.

Triangle Travel managing director Rob Kenton, who runs six agency branches in Berkshire and Oxfordshire, reported a 45% fall in bookings last week on the previous one, labelling “the combination of the World Cup and the heatwave a temporary distraction”. 

But he said bookings remain “5% up year on year”, adding: “There has been a tangible shift in client confidence since the fuel-shortage headlines faded.” He reported late bookings “made up only 10% of sales last week”.

The Travel Network Group chief operating officer Stephanie Slark noted “mixed feedback” from members, but hailed a “generally positive picture”, saying: “While the late-booking market is beginning to soften, forward bookings remain strong.”

The Harris Poll UK surveyed 1,006 UK adults on behalf of Travel Weekly.