Travel agents are confident of strong January sales but say a second peak season may be needed to avoid heavy discounting in next year’s lates market.
Companies cited the continued importance of holidays in household spend, easing inflation and talk of tax cuts as reasons for optimism ahead of the 2024 peak season.
Speaking at Hays Travel’s Retail Conference in Portugal, chair Dame Irene Hays forecast 2024 would be “the year of two peaks”, with a second sales push to offload extra capacity, offset discounting and hold prices.
Jet2holidays, easyJet holidays and Tui UK collectively increased their licensed capacity by 3.3 million passengers from October 2022 to October 2023.
Hays said additional holidays on sale for 2024 from the agency’s top‑three suppliers meant there was an extra 28% capacity to sell.
She made the case for a second peak season based on evidence consumers were holding on to money for longer because of economic uncertainty, and increased capacity.
She said: “We intend to invest in a second ‘peaks’ for lates. We’ve always sold lates before but the evidence is we need to plan not quite the same [marketing] as January-February but pretty close.”
Hays wouldn’t be drawn on when the second peaks would be, saying it was dependent on when consumers felt confident to spend, but noted a “polarisation” into early and late sales, adding: “We have never seen such strong polarisation in the marketplace.”
Hays Travel has invested significantly in its turn-of-year campaign as holidays remain one of consumers’ top-three desired purchases, she said.
“They are spending more because they are prioritising travel over other purchases,” she said.
Advantage agents at last week’s Latitude Cruise Conference in Paris were urged to enter next year with a “positive mindset” and “not get bogged down” worrying about the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, with 2024 looking “really promising”.
Advantage Travel Partnership head of commercial John Sullivan predicted customers would continue to increase travel budgets as he forecast a “huge” peak season.
He said: “The cost-of-living crisis is just one part of the story – there is a whole other part of the market which has money to spend.”
Miles Morgan Travel chairman Miles Morgan said overcapacity risked a “lates price bloodbath”.
He said: “We’ve had record sales for two years. There are lots of reasons to be cheerful, and interest rates [on savings] give my clients confidence. I have only one principal worry: overcapacity in the short-haul market.”
Idle Travel director Tony Mann was hopeful it would “not get to that stage [heavy discounting]”.
Predicting “10 months of peaks” based on this year’s record sales, and with 2024 “unbelievably healthy”, he said: “We’re still riding on the crest of a wave. I’m looking forward to 2024.”
Polka Dot Travel director Mark Johnson agreed: “Inflation has eased. Tax cuts are being talked about. So I’m expecting a strong peaks in January.”
He believes a second peak is likely, but stressed: “We’ll be taking nothing for granted.”
Premier Travel managing director Paul Waters predicted strong early and late sales next year, adding: “The aspiration to travel is still there and clients are wanting the best price.”
Althams Travel managing director Sandra McAllister predicted January’s sales would beat records. “As long as there are no major events, I believe we’re in for a bumper month,” she said.