UK-US traffic may have ‘plateaued’ before war in the Gulf

A decline in US air passengers to the UK this year could signal transatlantic traffic between the countries has reached a “plateau”.

That is according to tourism data analyst David Edwards of European travel association Etoa who told a  Tourism Insights conference in London that US International Trade Administration figures showed a 1.1% decline year on year in US air passengers to Britain in February.

Edwards noted this was the first decline in numbers apart from during Covid since US arrivals to the UK “surged” from around 2013 off the back of a favourable sterling-dollar exchange rate.

The market had seen “an exceptionally strong rebound” from the pandemic, he said, with US visitor numbers in 2024 up 9.5% on 2019 and up by a further 3.9% in 2025.

Yet the February data suggested visitor numbers may have “started to plateau”, said Edwards, pointing out that US consumer confidence was already “downbeat” before the White House and Israel launched the war against Iran at the end of February.

Edwards told the conference there had also been a “clear drop” in travel to the US since the end of 2024, with total overseas arrivals to the country down 5.5% year on year in 2025, although arrivals from the UK had “remained flat”.

He said: “We’ve seen a decline in overall travel to the US since the second Trump presidency began.”

Edwards noted “it’s very market specific”, but he added: “Much has happened in the last three months and much of it will have made people think ‘Do I really want to go there?’

He suggested the Fifa World Cup, due to be hosted by the US, Canada and Mexico in June and July, could impact on the availability and cost of fares to the US this summer, saying: “Certain routes to the US around the time of matches could influence booking patterns and feed into fare volatility.”