Analysis: Easter dates explain fall in UK arrivals to the US

 

Mainstream media outlets have been quick to report a downturn in UK and European travel to the US following a release of US government data on international arrivals in March.

 

International Trade Administration figures showed a 14% decline year on year in UK arrivals to the US in the month and a 17% decline in visitors from western Europe, with German visitors down 28%.

 

That led the Financial Times to report “European travellers cancel US visits as Trump’s policies threaten tourism”, blaming both “political and economic turmoil” and “fears of a hostile border” reception.

 

Yet there is little evidence of declining UK visitor numbers to date.

 

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The fall in March appears wholly attributable to the shift of the Easter long weekend from March 28-April 1 last year to April 18-21 this year, with arrivals in January and February 5% up.

 

UK arrivals to the US in March 2024 were up 10% year on year, coinciding with Easter, and arrivals from western Europe were up 22%.

 

There were just over four million UK visitors to the US in 2024, still almost 16% down on 2019 – largely due to the exchange rate and inflation in US holiday costs.

 

UK arrivals to the US last month were also down 16% on March 2019, with Easter 2019 falling in mid-to-late April. However, there is concern about the impact on tourism of US government actions.

 

US Travel Association chief executive Geoff Freeman told a congressional committee last week: “We face growing challenges that threaten both the future of the industry and America’s competitive edge. We’d like to see [a] clear message right now that Canadians, Europeans, all travellers are encouraged to come to the United States.”

 

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Delta Air Lines last week axed capacity growth plans “given the lack of economic clarity” and “a reduction in corporate confidence”.

 

Chief executive Ed Bastian said growth “has largely stalled, with broad economic uncertainty around global trade”.

 

Despite Delta reporting record operating revenue of $14 billion and a pre-tax profit of $320 million for the three months to March, Bastian said: “We’re cognisant of what is going on in the marketplace [and] keeping a close eye on it – closer than ever before. We’re working through the [capacity growth] cuts as we speak.”

 

He insisted: “We haven’t seen a crack in international traffic to the US yet, but we’re mindful of that. We have seen a significant drop-off in bookings in Canada.”

 

Delta Air Lines president Glen Hauenstein said: “The weakness is in the domestic main cabin. Transatlantic is very strong. International traffic continues to be a point of strength for us [and] we’ve seen no significant increase in refunds.”

 

There were more than 20 million visitors to the US from Canada last year.

 

Pic credit: GagliardiPhotography