Analysis: Progress stalls on cutting carbon

Progress on countering global warming, both tempering the rise in global temperatures and mitigating its impact, appears increasingly stalled.

 

The 42nd assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) closed in mid-October with no progress in addressing criticisms of ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) despite producing a 26-page resolution.

 

It merely reaffirmed a global commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 – ICAO’s ‘Long-Term Aspirational Goal’ – and endorsed Corsia as the single global market-based measure for crediting offsets.

 

But Corsia only applies to emissions above 85% of 2019 levels so will cover only about a quarter of international aviation emissions in Europe by 2035 and an analysis of credits issued by the middle of this year, involving a tree-planting programme in Guyana, found 84% did not represent real emission reductions.

 

Separately, a deal to reduce shipping’s global emissions was abandoned this month under pressure from the US and Saudi Arabia when representatives of more than 100 countries met to approve an International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Net-Zero Framework deal.

 

This would have seen shipping, including cruise, adopt global targets for emissions reduction.

 

Both setbacks came as the UK Climate Change Committee, which reports to the government on progress on emissions reduction, urged ministers to prepare for 2C warming by 2050, warning Britian is “not yet adapted” to current weather extremes “let alone” those to come.

 

Baroness Brown, chair of the adaptation committee, wrote to Department for Environment minister Emma Hardy whose responsibilities include net zero, climate change and adaptation, saying: “Adaptation is not keeping up with the increase in climate risk.”

 

She urged the government to prepare “at a minimum for the weather extremes if global warming levels reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050”.

In April, the committee declared current preparations “too slow, stalled or heading in the wrong direction”.

 

A report by UK sustainability consultancy Leafr published in late October suggested most companies in Europe won’t hit their sustainability targets.

 

Based on a survey of 450 sustainability leads across UK and EU businesses, the True State of Sustainability 2025 report found only 11% confident their organisation is on track – down from 24% a year ago.

 

Three out of four (76%) reported their team is inadequately resourced, two thirds (67%) said their team was the same or smaller than last year, 62% cited budget constraints as a barrier, and 42% flagged lack of engagement at the top of company, double the rate in 2024.

 

Leafr said the findings “reflect pressures inside the companies responsible for the majority of corporate emissions". Two-thirds of respondents represented large or enterprise-sized firms with 250-plus employees.

 

Gus Bartholomew, co-founder of Leafr, said: “Sustainability teams can’t deliver net zero on their own. They are under-resourced, pulled in too many directions and forced into compliance work at the expense of impact.

 

Fellow co-founder Nick Valenzia said: “Boards would never accept financial accounts prepared by unqualified staff yet they entrust multi-million-pound sustainability strategies to under-resourced teams."

 

The World Meteorological Organisation reported in mid-October that CO2 levels in the atmosphere increased by a record amount in 2024, warning of even more extreme weather.