The Israel-Gaza conflict is slowing the global recovery of air travel, new flight booking analysis shows.
Travel analytics firm ForwardKeys found that the effect is global, with the whole market slowing by 5 percentage points (pp) in the three weeks since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 and the subsequent assault on Gaza.
The analysis compared flight bookings, benchmarked against pre-pandemic levels, during the three weeks before October 7 with the same period after.
Flight bookings from Middle East countries fell by 9pp since the outbreak of war. From the Americas, they slowed by 10pp, while Asia Pacific, Europe – including Israel – and Africa each slowed by 2pp.
The growth in bookings to all regions of the world has slowed down, with the exception of Africa, which has continued to recover towards 2019 levels.
Flight bookings to the Americas are down 6pp, to Europe 3pp, to Asia Pacific 1pp and the Middle East 26pp.
ForwardKeys insights vice president Olivier Ponti said: “This war is a catastrophic, heartbreaking, human tragedy that we are all seeing daily on our TV screens.
“That is bound to put people off travelling to the region, but it has also dented consumer confidence in travelling elsewhere too.
“As of October 6 bookings showed that global air travel in the last quarter of the year, Q4, would reach 95% of its 2019 level, but, as of October 27, the outlook has fallen back by 7pp and stands at 88%.
“The equivalent change in outlook for the Middle East is much more sobering, falling back 16pp to 110%, from 126%, before the war began.”
Ryanair has extended Tel Aviv flight cancellations until December 14 amid the continuing Israel-Gaza situation.
The decision, blamed on “operational restrictions” means that the airline will have had no flights to the Israeli airport for almost two months.
British Airways’ Heathrow-Tel Aviv service is currently suspended until November 14 and Virgin Atlantic on the same route until November 29.