Met Office unveils service to cut volcanic ash flight disruption

A new forecasting service has been unveiled by the Met Office in a bid to cut airline disruption from volcanic ash clouds.

 

The initiative comes 15 years after the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland closed large amounts of airspace across Europe, disrupting flights and leading to widespread cancellations and delays. 

 

Ash forecast data provided by the Met Office - in its role as the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) - assists airlines with decision-making for where they can safely operate and reduces the amount of airspace that must be avoided.

 

Mark Seltzer, Met Office expert operational lead for VAAC London, said: “As we saw in 2010, volcanic ash eruptions in the northeast Atlantic can cause major air travel disruption due to dense flight routes and high seismic activity, resulting in widespread delays and cancellations between the UK, Ireland, Europe, the Far East and North America. 

 

“And then, of course, there are the secondary impacts of those cancellations to the public, businesses, hospitality and the tourist industry.

 

“With our new service we estimate that the disruption today from an eruption of Eyjafjallajökull would be half of that experienced in April 2010.”

 

The Met Office is one of the first of the nine VAACs - in tandem with Meteo France (VAAC Toulouse) - to start producing the new higher-resolution Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) forecasts required under International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) regulations from tomorrow (Thursday). The seven other VAACs will follow one year later. 

 

The Met Office’s new QVA service will be available free to all airlines and the aviation industry worldwide. 

 

It comprises gridded forecasts which provide the expected ash concentration for 12 horizontal slices of the atmosphere from the ground up to about 60,000ft, as well as “probability forecasts” which indicate the likelihood that certain ash concentrations will be exceeded.

 

The new forecasts are intended to support a shift away from traditional discernible/visible ash criteria, and instead take advantage of engine and airframe volcanic ash certification specifications.

 

VAAC London is responsible for issuing forecasts for volcanic eruptions originating in Iceland and the north-eastern corner of the North Atlantic.