Outbound market to US as much as 8% down, estimates USAirtours chief

USAirtours director Guy Novik has estimated the UK outbound market to the US has dipped by up to 8% in recent months, arguing that steady arrival figures in the year to date represent the “calm before the storm”.

 

A US analysis of flight arrivals suggested the number of UK visitors in the first five months of this year rose 2.7% compared with the same period last year, with May itself 2.4% ahead of the same month in 2024.

 

But Novik said he expected the figures to show a downturn next year, based on the booking patterns he had identified.

 

“I think the overall market is down by 5%-8% and I don’t think that will start to appear in the [arrival] numbers until next year,” he said, adding that clients seeking family holidays would typically book their trip 9-12 months before departure.

 

He said the average agency that worked with USAirtours had recorded a 5%-8% decrease in US sales through the operator in the year to date, but the company had managed to grow its number of agency partners by about 12%.

 

“We’ve managed to grow our business because we’ve managed to significantly increase the number of agencies we work with – so we’ve won market share, but the pie is shrinking,” he added.

 

At the start of the year, prices appeared high to many potential customers, he said, noting the level of inflation and the relatively weak pound. 

 

A further fall in sales was registered in April, he said, when President Donald Trump announced sweeping global tariffs.

 

“Even though the imposition of tariffs wouldn’t have had any direct impact on customers’ pockets in the short term, they didn’t know what it meant and they decided they weren’t going to be booking,” Novik said, pointing to a “significant” drop in enquiries in April. The Easter break is also always a slow period, he added.

 

The operator went on to record a “strong” May, with a potential further boost coming from a weakening dollar. “Holidays are now coming down in price,” he said.

Intrepid Travel chief executive James Thornton said UK sales to the US were 25% down year on year.

 

In addition to concerns over politics, he said travellers were also wary about the cost of the destination, and younger customers in particular had been “voting with their feet”.

 

Yet The Travel Network Group revealed the US remains its leading long-haul destination, despite “consumer sentiment”.

 

Vim Vithaldas, chief commercial officer, told members at the group’s conference in Bucharest this week: “I’m very surprised to see the US still at number one. [I hear] people say it is too expensive or they don’t like the politics, so they can’t afford it or are boycotting it – but they are still going.”

 

He also noted the exchange rate had moved to be “more in our favour” in the past few weeks, which should help the US remain in the top spot.

 

Barrhead Travel president Jacqueline Dobson said the agency’s US sales had been performing well recently, adding: “We’ve actually seen an increase [in bookings].”