European levels of travel are not expected to surpass pre-pandemic volumes until 2024, according to the latest projection.
The forecast by the European Travel Commission (ETC) comes despite the sector being poised for major recovery.
But volumes are still far from the pre-March 2020 days even though Europe has the highest vaccination rate of the world’s regions, which is expected to release significant pent-up demand.
Although European travel made positive strides in 2021, there is still a long road ahead as international tourist arrivals to Europe were still down 77% half-way through the year, the latest data revealed.
A slower vaccine rollout across eastern Europe, and in some large long-haul source markets, may potentially delay the recovery, “presenting a lingering downside risk”.
A notable absence of long-haul travellers was noted, with US arrivals to Europe remaining 90% below their 2019 levels for one third of reporting destinations.
The absence of Chinese holidaymakers was also sorely felt across Europe, with all reporting destinations posting declines of more than 90% compared to 2019.
Overall, international tourist arrivals to Europe are forecast to be 60% below 2019 by the end of 2021 with many other factors continuing to weigh on Europe’s tourism recovery.
These include ever-changing Covid-19 restrictions and policies, renewed outbreaks and confusion around the colour-coded EU travel system applied differently across European destinations.
The adoption of different systems for accepting non-recognised vaccines may also continue to impact destinations heavily reliant on long-haul travel.
ETC president Luís Araujo said: “From our latest European Tourism Trends & Prospects quarterly report it is clear to see the critical role vaccination programmes have already played in helping travel rebound.
“The Covid-19 vaccine rollout was vital to the easing of entry requirements and boosting the appeal of travel during the summer season.
“However, vaccination efforts won’t be enough. As the winter months approach, it is imperative that Europe strives to further restore the freedom of movement by implementing more holistic and coherent approaches for travel within and outside the EU.”