Operators hail record year for bookings but express 2026 trading caution

Barrhead Travel, InteleTravel and Carnival Corporation provided confirmation in the past week that 2025 has been another record year for bookings.

 

However, there is some wariness within the trade that this year could prove to be a “high-water mark”, with 2026 trading expected to be more challenging.

 

Nicki Tempest-Mitchell, Barrhead Travel managing director, reported trading 10% ahead of 2024 at the company’s annual conference in Dubrovnik at the weekend, with three-quarters of Barrhead’s Brilliant Travel members having their best year to date and sales for 2026 up 16% on the same time last year.

 

The InteleTravel conference in Porto heard UK and Ireland sales were set to top £245 million this year, with chief executive James Ferrara reporting bookings up more than 50% on last year’s £155 million.

 

Carnival Corporation reported a record $1.9 billion net profit for the three months to August and a 10th consecutive quarter of record revenue on Monday and raised its full-year profits forecast for the third time this year.

 

More: EasyJet holidays and Tui boost Atols in latest renewals

 

UK package bookings surpassed their 2019 high of 26.3 million in 2023 when they hit 30 million, rising to 31.6 million in the12 months to March and will be higher still in the current year with Atol capacity above 34 million.

 

By contrast, UK air passenger numbers only reached 2019’s level this year, confirming the trade has not merely benefited from a rising travel tide but has enlarged its market share.

 

However, a profits warning from On the Beach last week and announcement it is shutting Classic Collection, coming on top of a Jet2profit warning earlier this month, suggests momentum could be slowing.

 

Travel Trade Consultancy director Martin Alcock coined the term ‘peak package’ at Travel Weekly’s Future of Travel Conference in September, suggesting the industry might lookback at 2025 as a “high-water mark” and “peak package” moment.

 

Hays Travel owner Dame Irene Hays, addressing the same conference, revealed she is poised to report “double-digit” growth in forthcoming annual results despite noting: “July was tough, and August started off really badly.”

 

Suppliers at the Barrhead Travel Conference remained upbeat, anticipating another strong January. Ruth Venn, P&O Cruises associate vice-president of sales and distribution, reported January 2025 as the line’s best-ever ‘wave’ sales period and forecast January 2026 would be better still.

 

Wendy Wu Tours founder and chair Wendy Wu told the conference: “We’re looking forward to an explosive 2026 peaks.”

 

Advantage Travel Partnership commercial director John Sullivan confirmed bookings remain strong, reporting “resilient demand for package holidays”, with revenue up 12% and average booking values up 9% this year.

 

However, Association of Atol Companies advisor Alan Bowen said: “It’s been a good year, but not the same as 2024 and 2023. A lot of long-haul operators are saying it has not been brilliant.”

 

He suggested there are “too many holidays on the market”, and said: “We’re close to, if not at, the peak.”

 

Bowen added: “I’m worried the Budget on November 26 is going to have an effect on people.”

 

Deben Travel managing director Lee Hunt said: “We’ve seen a huge spike in package sales with brands customers recognise. We’re possibly riding the peak. We may now see the plateau.”