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The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is warning that proposed changes to the US Esta programme, requiring wider social media disclosures, could hit international travel demand and weaken the American travel and tourism economy.
Tourists to the US from countries including the UK could be asked to reveal their social media activity from the last five years, according to proposals from the US government.
The new plans would affect anyone applying for an Electronic System for Travel Authorization (Esta) which allows visitors to stay in the US for up to 90 days without a visa.
The WTTC says its research suggests the move could lead to losses in visitor spending of up to $15.7 billion, and up to 157,000 jobs lost.
The findings are based on a multi-country survey of travellers across Esta-eligible markets, combined with detailed economic impact modelling.
WTTC’s analysis, in partnership with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, shows that awareness of the proposed policy change is already high, with two-thirds (66%) of respondents saying they are familiar with the potential change.
More: US immigration could ask tourists for up to five years of social media history
This suggests impacts on travel sentiment and behaviour will be felt quickly if implemented, said WTTC.
Around one-third of respondents (34%) say they would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the US in the next two to three years if the changes are introduced.
Only 12% say they would be more likely to visit, resulting in a “clear and significant” net decline in travel intent, added the organisation.
Gloria Guevara, president and chief executive of WTTC, said: “Security at the US border is vital but the planned policy changes will damage job creation, which the US administration values so much.
“Our research finds that over 150,000 jobs could be lost if this policy goes ahead, the same number usually created each quarter in the US.
“Even modest shifts in visitor behaviour, put off by the planned changes, will have real economic consequences for US travel and tourism, particularly in a highly competitive global market.”
Guevara continued: “WTTC urges US policymakers to carefully assess this policy and its consequences for the economy and jobs.
“Travel and tourism is a critical driver of the American economy, job creation and international connectivity, with one in three jobs in the world created by the sector.”