Operators are actively working on plans for the resumption of travel but future programmes are likely to be scaled back and the rebound uncertain and erratic.
The Travel Weekly Webcast heard from senior executives from Celebrity Cruises, Ingham’s parent Hotelplan and ATD Travel Services, parent of AttractionTickets.com.
All agreed that future prospects remain uncertain, but all are working on what scenarios may emerge as lockdowns are lifted and international travel resumes.
Paul Carter, chief executive of Hotelplan UK, was doubtful the operator would have a summer operation this year and he said, beyond that, programme capacities were likely to be cut.
Summer in doubt
“I don’t know whether we’ll have a summer operation,” he said. “It really depends on the destination as some countries are starting to emerge and restrictions are starting to lift. It depends on the consumer appetite.”
One of Hotelplan’s biggest winter operations is for Father Christmas visits to Lapland, but Carter said the firm is already in discussions about reducing capacity if a recession leads to widespread redundancies.
“We’ve got strong forward bookings for those programmes, but the truth will come when the balance payments are due. We’re having lots of conversations around should we scale that programme back.”
Carter said he expects the ski market to be more resilient, although he expected to see a hit to the family sector.
“We are planning various scenarios, but it won’t be the same size as last year. Skiers will still go but they won’t take their kids if it’s too expensive.”
Jo Rzymowska, EMEA managing director for Celebrity Cruises, said owner Royal Caribbean International was running through various return to service plans.
She said this is “highly complex” involving work with governments and port authorities around the world but that it is intended to make the “comeback stronger than the setback”.
“The first thing is obviously deployment. When and where, and every plan you write, you then rip up and change again, but you constantly plan for that. And things are constantly evolving.”
Cruise ships ‘movable’
Rzymowska said cruise lines have movable assets and so can take advantage as markets, like Asia, open up but that it is vital to understand what protocols will be in place for cruise to resume.
“These are unprecedented times, but we will get through it. We are people and we want to connect, we want to travel.
“We will work through this. It’s highly complex, but we are very much focused on getting ready to return to service and supporting our trade partners and engaging with consumers. We’ll get there.”
Brendon said ATD has been going through scenario planning processes, but as the news about COVID-19 gets worse it has been forced to write off 2020.
“It’s tricky. we keep doing different scenario planning – worst case, best case, likely case. The likely case keeps becoming the worst case as the news gets worse and worse.”
Strict travel rules likely
Brendon said there are likely to be strict regimes in place in theme parks to maintain social distancing which will suppress demand in the near term.
“I’m not all that optimistic about this year. we’ve kept marketing people on and we’re working hard on creating some really cool inspiring content for social media.
“We just feel like it’s going to be like a start-up environment again. It’s starting again creating the demand. it’s top of the funnel marketing to try to create that interest.
“There’s too many unknowns. The competitive landscape is unknown, the customer reaction to when this is all over is unknown.
“It could be they want to stay at home, and they can’t afford to go anywhere or it could be just a sense of relief, let’s book something big and get out there and thank the kids for doing their school work.”
Brendon said ATD had seen a sign of pent-up demand when Disney requested balances for 2020 but extended ticket validation into 2021 and it saw £3.5 million of payments in a five day period.
Carter said the rebound will be defined by demographics and travel type, with holidays aimed at younger people and those who can travel by car and stay in self-contained rental accommodation likely to return first.
“I think it might be different and there’ll be more people who want to stay in self-catering apartments. I do think the more independent side will come back more quickly.
“And I am more optimistic about next summer. The big worry is what does the recovery look like. Nobody’s talking about a V-shape anymore, it’s a W or an L. And, from what I’m reading, it’s going to be a couple of years before we get back to normal.”
