The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has forecast an “accelerated rebound” in corporate travel with most leading economies now expected to avoid recession this year.
GBTA hailed the industry’s recovery at the opening day of its Convention in Dallas on Monday as it launched its latest Business Travel Index (BTI) Outlook report produced with Visa, saying: “The business travel industry has rebounded at a more accelerated rate than expected a year ago.”
The report forecasts global corporate travel spending will surpass the pre-pandemic level of $1.4 trillion in 2024 and hit $1.8 Trillion by 2027 “due to pent-up demand, the return of travel and meetings, the improved Covid landscape, stable economic conditions and inflation”.
GBTA and Visa had previously forecast a recovery to 2019 levels only by mid-2026.
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The report notes corporate travel spending rose 47% to $1.03 trillion in 2022 and forecasts 32% growth this year “fuelled by pent-up demand, more favourable global economic conditions and recession risks that have yet to happen”.
The $1.03 trillion total for 2022 comprised $183 billion on flights, $395 billion on hospitality, $191 billion on food and beverage, $138 billion on ground transportation and $121 billion in other expenses.
GBTA chief executive Suzanne Neufang said: “The headwinds anticipated to impact the rebound of global business travel over the past year didn’t materialise.
“This latest forecast indicates an accelerated return to pre-pandemic spending levels sooner than anticipated as well as growth in the coming years.”
However, the report warns: “Numerous challenges remain, including the war in Ukraine, persistent inflation in certain areas, much tighter global financial conditions and a deterioration in the manufacturing sector.”
It notes: “While a promising rebound is expected, several factors could influence the longer-term forecast.
“An increased focus on sustainability initiatives, widespread adoption of meeting technologies, growth in the remote workforce and the rise of blended travel are potential game-changers in business travel.”
The report also notes the recovery continues to vary by region and industry, with Asia Pacific a laggard last year due to the delayed reopening of China.
However, it forecasts China will return to being the world’s number-one business travel market by the end of this year.
The BTI Outlook report includes data from a GBTA survey of 4,700 business travellers in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America which estimates current business travel spending at $1,018 per person per trip.
Three out of five business travellers (62%) reported mixing business and personal travel more often than in 2019, with 42% adding leisure days to business trips.
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