European air traffic will continue to recover this year but not return to pre-pandemic levels for another two years, according to Eurocontrol.
Eurocontrol forecasts Europe’s air traffic will reach 92% of 2019 levels this year, up from 85% in 2022, and hit 95% in August “as capacity and staffing issues are progressively tackled”.
However, a full recovery is not forecast until 2025 – a year later than Eurocontrol predicted last June. The revision is based on economic output “remaining weak for most states, inflation impacting demand” and consumers showing a “lower propensity to fly on economic grounds”.
Eurocontrol noted: “The various downside risks – relating to the economy, fuel prices and staff shortages/industrial relations – are reflected in our updated forecast.”
Director general Eamonn Brennan said: “We predict further strengthening [in the market], but huge challenges in matching capacity with demand.”
Eurocontrol noted the average price of jet fuel in Europe rose from $1.10 per gallon in November 2021 to $3.35 last November and warned that, although fuel prices may have peaked at the end of last year, “prices should remain high in 2023”.
Its analysis, issued at the start of this month, found average airfares increased by 14% year on year in 2022, peaking at 29% higher in July, reflecting “sustained demand, reduced flight choice and higher fuel prices”.
Europe’s air traffic returned to 83% of 2019’s level in the year, rising steadily from 71% in February to 86% in May and remained at 86%-88% for the remainder of the year. Brennan said: “Airlines and airports were able to rebuild their balance sheets in 2022 and continue to invest. [But] there is still considerable volatility and the recovery is uneven.”