The case for expanding Heathrow to cater to increased demand for business travel needs revising, according to Dr Alex Chapman, senior economist at the New Economics Foundation (NEF).
Appearing before the Transport Select Committee of MPs in a hearing on the links between airport expansion and economic growth earlier in February, Chapman said: “We’ve heard a lot about business travel. [But] there is a fundamental problem.
“In the last 20 years, there has been about 25% real-terms growth in [UK] GDP and not a single additional business passenger though our airports.
“There has been no growth in the [business travel] market since 2006.”
He argued: “As of 2024, business passengers are down about 20% on the pre-Covid level. Twenty years without growth suggests a structural shift in the passenger base.
“We need to be cautious about assuming demand for the next 20 years.”
Chapman told MPs: “There is a clear trajectory. It looks like the forecasts of business passengers are fundamentally wrong.”
He noted forecasts based on 2011 figures “anticipated significant growth in business travellers by 2030” and said: “At the moment we’re way below that.”