Ryanair aims to capture one-third of the European short-haul market in the next decade as it targets carrying 300 million passengers a year by 2034.
The airline carried 168 million in the 12 months to March, up from 149 million in 2019-20, and expects to carry 185 million in the 12 months to March 2024.
Ryanair will operate its largest-ever schedule this summer with more than 3,000 daily flights and capacity 25% up on its pre-Covid level, while most carriers will continue to operate below pre-pandemic volumes.
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Group chief executive Michael O’Leary promised “a decade of sustained growth”, saying: “We’re the largest airline in Europe and still growing 10% a year. It’s astonishing. We have access to 50 new aircraft a year for the next three years.”
He argued: “Growth will slow as we get to 2027 [and] to 225 million passengers a year, but we still expect to grow at 5%-6% a year.”
Ryanair placed an order for another 300 Boeing 737 Max aircraft earlier this month for delivery from 2027, half of which will serve to expand its fleet and half to replace older aircraft. It currently operates 540 aircraft.
O’Leary dismissed environmental concerns about Ryanair’s expansion, arguing: “The 185 million passengers who fly with Ryanair are reducing emissions by switching from legacy carriers with older aircraft and lower seat factors.”
He also dismissed investment analysts who questioned whether demand in Europe would continue to grow, saying: “We’re still growing significantly in mature markets. The thesis that there is no more growth in Europe, that the European aviation market is tapped out, is wrong.
“Capacity will be constrained in Europe for the next five years and traffic will continue to be strong. We’ll capture about one-third of the market in Europe in the next 10 years.”
O’Leary acknowledged fares would increasingly have to reflect the cost of carbon emissions.
“Environmental taxation will become a feature of European air travel in the next five years,” he said. “But it needs to be fair environmental taxation. Long-haul has to pay its fair share, as does transfer traffic.”
However, he insisted: “Taxes won’t fundamentally alter the huge cost advantages we have over competitors. We’ll be the beneficiaries of environmental taxes in Europe.”
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