The trade is starting to feel the effect of the weak pound-dollar exchange rate but sales remain resilient despite rising living costs.
The value of the pound against the dollar plunged to $1.21 in mid‑May, although it rallied this week to about $1.25.
The Advantage Travel Partnership said the exchange rate was hitting new sales due to higher flight prices and resort costs.
Leisure director Kelly Cookes said: “People are looking at whether they can go to the Indian Ocean or Far East where it is cheaper.”
She added: “Trading-wise, the US is dropping off versus 2019, and we’re hearing that from suppliers too. But in volume terms it is still one of the top long-haul destinations.”
Barrhead Travel president Jacqueline Dobson said the US and Caribbean were still popular. “Demand for travel remains strong but flight prices are increasing,” she said.
All-inclusive holidays, cruises and multi-centres with added value were mitigating price increases, she added.
Alistair Rowland, chief executive of agency Blue Bay Travel, which also has a tour operation, described the strengthening dollar as “very damaging” but insisted it was “not putting people off travel”.
Alan Bowen, legal advisor to the Association of Atol Companies (AAC), agreed: “The strength of the dollar is not great, but we’re not seeing an impact yet. Costs in resort will be a lot higher, but it has not affected bookings.”
Overall the market was “strong”, he said, admitting: “We’re all very surprised that inflation at 9% and the war in Ukraine don’t appear to be having an effect.”
Rowland reported the first signs of consumers downgrading to lower‑priced holidays, but most agents reported clients were paying full balances for this summer.
Miles Morgan Travel owner Miles Morgan said: “The impact is minimal this year because everyone wants a holiday. Our sales are substantially ahead of our expectations.”
Pole Travel director Jill Waite added: “Most people are paying balances. They just want to go away after two years.”
Idle Travel has enjoyed its best-ever January, February, March, April and May in 39 years’ trading. Director Tony Mann said: “We’re getting a lot of new customers and a broad spectrum of ages.”
Dobson said pent-up demand had kept trading at or above 2019 levels.