Eurocontrol has revised down its air traffic forecast for Europe this summer despite the number of daily flights reaching 86% of 2019’s level at the start of June.
The European air traffic management body now forecasts traffic over the course of this year will return to 85% of 2019’s level, down from a previous forecast of 89%.
Eurocontrol blamed the impact of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 at the start of the year for the revision. But it warned rising inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threaten a further deterioration in the outlook, noting: “Uncertainty remains high, with risks skewed to the downside.”
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The latest forecast predicts traffic will return to 95% of 2019’s level next year and to close to 100% in 2024.
The revision is based on traffic trends to the end of April and a downward revision in economic growth forecast for the second and third quarters of this year due to the war in Ukraine and high inflation. It assumes no reopening of routes closed by the war in Ukraine by 2024.
Eurocontrol calls this its ‘baseline’ scenario and considers it “most likely” but warns: “There are significant risks surrounding the forecast.”
A second, ‘high’ scenario forecasts a return to 2019’s level of traffic next year, based on no return of travel restrictions, restoration of pre-Covid long-haul flows this year, a bounce‑back of business travel, a “limited impact” of staff shortages on airports and airlines and “no impact” from inflation.
The ‘baseline’ forecast is also based on “few travel restrictions” and a “limited impact” of staff shortages and of inflation.
A ‘low’ scenario would see a recovery to 2019 levels delayed until at least 2027. It assumes a reintroduction of travel restrictions, growing environmental constraints, a high impact of staff shortages, the purchasing power of travellers to be “strongly reduced” by inflation and “a permanent drop in propensity to fly”.
Eurocontrol favours the baseline forecast, but identifies inflation and uncertainty triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “key risks”, noting: “A longer period of conflict would translate into a bigger hit to the global economic expansion.”
It also notes: “It is uncertain how airlines will be able to pass the fuel price spikes to travellers in a market recovering from lockdowns.”
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