UK demand for overseas holidays is at record levels despite the squeeze on consumer spending from rising prices, the lower value of the pound and uncertainty about Britain’s prospects post-Brexit.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released last week confirms UK consumers took a record 46.5 million overseas holidays last year, one million more than the previous high of 45.5 million a decade ago.
At the same time, figures from industry analyst GfK show trade bookings for summer 2018 up 5% year on year to the end of February and season-to-date revenue up 8%. GfK insight director David Hope hailed the “healthy differential” between bookings and revenue as evidence “there has not been significant discounting”.
Summer 2018 bookings in February were up 2% year on year, although high street agents’ bookings were down on February 2017. The increase came through what GfK labels ‘direct channels’.
The healthy state of outbound travel contrasts sharply with other areas of consumer spending. UK restaurants had a lousy 2017, with profits at the top‑100 restaurant groups down by two-thirds on 2016 and 35 of the chains reporting losses, according to business advisory firm UHY Hacker Young.
UK average earnings growth has lagged inflation for the past year and the GfK consumer confidence index used by the UK Treasury has been negative for the past two years. GfK’s holiday bookings data does show signs of “holidaymakers becoming more budget-conscious”, with seven-night holidays making up almost half the summer 2018 bookings made in February.
But there is no evidence, at least yet, of a downturn in outbound holiday demand or even of slowing growth – despite claims to the contrary by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) in its annual Economic Impact Research on the global travel industry.
The WTTC suggested: “British holidaymakers are increasingly opting for staycations, with outbound tourist departures from the UK growing by only 2.5%.”
In fact, demand for both outbound and domestic holidays has remained strong. Latest Great Britain Domestic Tourism figures show a 6% rise in domestic holidays in 2017 up until November, although only a 0.6% rise in all domestic trips.
ONS figures for outbound travel in the final quarter of 2017 are provisional, but show a 3% rise in outbound holidays over the year.
All trips by overseas visitors to the UK rose 3% year on year in 2017, but holiday trips were up 9% – making it a bumper year for all travel sectors.
The Travel Network Group
Membership services director Lisa Henning said: “A number of members have reported double-digit growth during peak booking season, particularly in cruise, which they have put down to the TV show Cruising with Jane McDonald.
“We’ve also seen a huge increase in touring holidays. And customers aren’t looking to save money; it’s about value and the experience.”
She said homeworking division ITE had also recorded its best trading in January since it was set up five years ago.
Hays Travel
Retail and training director Jane Schumm said the agency had seen double-digit growth this financial year, adding: “We had a really strong January and that has continued into March. Although people are cutting back on some consumer spending like eating out, a holiday is still important.”