European environment ministers were poised to agree a target for cuts in airline emissions as Travel Weekly’s Green Issue went to press.
If the suggested 10% reduction on 2005 levels by 2020 is accepted, the industry will have its work cut out – a fact recognised by IATA, which described 10% as “not realistic”.
The target would need to be agreed by the European Commission, but it is a sign of the growing pressure on airlines ahead of the United Nations (UN) summit on climate change in Copenhagen in December.
A month ago, British Airways chief executive Willie Walsh outlined to the UN a landmark agreement to cut airline emissions by 50% by 2050, and called for a global agreement on aviation to emerge from Copenhagen.
However, BA’s target immediately drew criticism because hitting it would not mean halving emissions. It would be achieved by airlines buying carbon credits from other sectors and supporting carbon offset schemes.
IATA airlines have pledged an average annual improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% up to 2020 – in line with the average annual improvement over the past 40 years. The problem is aviation has grown at close to 5% a year over that time, meaning an annual increase in emissions of about 3%, regardless of improving technology.
It is the growth in flying that is the major problem.
The government has forecast UK passenger numbers will roughly double by 2030, taking UK aviation emissions to four-and-a-half times their 1990 level. By 2030, it has said: “UK aviation could amount to a quarter of the [country’s] total contribution to global warming.”
Of course, flying is far from being to blame for global warming. Power stations produce 39% of European carbon emissions and road transport 22%. Flights are responsible for about 3.4% of European emissions and close to 2% worldwide, although emissions in the UK are at 6%.
The problem is, emissions have to fall dramatically across the board.
More fuel-efficient aircraft will help. There is hope a rationalisation of air traffic control might provide a 12% reduction, and there is progress in developing alternative fuels. But aircraft fly for 20 years, and cuts have to kick in very soon.