A leading UK tourism body has poured scorn on the rosy picture of the future of the sector set out in a report commissioned by VisitBritain.
UKinbound challenged the report’s key claim that tourism revenue would grow by more than 60% by 2020, describing the forecast as “fantasy”.
It said the report ignored the real threats which are causing decline not growth in visitor numbers.
The organisation, which represents inbound travel companies, said current trends and feedback fly in the face of this optimism.
It claimed visitor numbers have declined year on year since 2007 when Air Passenger Duty was significantly increased, adding up to a reduction of 8% in visitor numbers over this period.
“In more recent times when a weak pound should have seen greater increase in visitors we are still experiencing a 3% decline so far in 2010,” said UKinbound.
“This current downward trend in visitor numbers has occurred with the current levels of APD and VAT, both of which are due to rise, which will result in a greater reduction in visitors to the UK.”
Long haul visitors are also being prevented or deterred from travelling to the UK by strict and overly complicated visa process, said UKinbound.
And with Heathrow operating at 99% capacity, it is difficult to see how such a big increase in tourism revenue can be achieved, UKinbound argued.
It called for “honest engagement” with the coalition government “to free us from the restraints that are restricting the reversal of this decline”.
UKinbound warned of a decline in visitors to the UK in 2012 based on the experience of other Olympic host nations.
Chief executive Mary Rance said: “We do not dispute the real potential for substantial growth in inbound tourism but this potential will pale into insignificance if there are no plans to increase capacity and to address urgently the real barriers to growth.
“With no plans to increase capacity at Heathrow or any other London airport and in the absence of a strategy to restore the competitiveness of the UK as a destination by addressing the barriers to growth, it is fantasy to suggest that such huge growth is attainable.”