The travel industry will face two major shocks regardless of economic growth or decline, according to a leading economic forecaster.
Christian Boellhoff, chief executive of consultancy firm Prognos, told an audience at trade show ITB in Berlin that demographic changes in western Europe would shape tourism over the next 20 years, while the industry would also have to adapt to climate change.
Boellhoff said: “Nothing will have a bigger impact than demographic factors.”
In Germany, he said: “There will be fewer people and we will need to work longer hours. The intensity of work will increase.People will have less time for travel – so they will make shorter trips and combine work and leisure.”
Boellhoff said: “We are convinced people will have more to spend over the next 20 years. But in an ageing society, and in a phase in which the social security system will be in difficulties, people will spend differently – on health, on long-term nursing.”
He warned: “People will have to spend differently. You will find yourselves battling for customers.”
Climate change would also change the industry, said Boellhoff. “Aviation will become much more expensive.
“Consumers will ask themselves increasingly whether it is right to travel long haul, [whether] it is acceptable to fly to New Zealand. The industry will need to deal with how consumers feel about long-haul travel.”