The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has estimated that revenue for the aviation sector will plummet by $252bn this year compared to 2019.
It said “owing to the severity of travel restrictions and the expected global recession” revenues will drop 44% in 2020 based on “severe travel restrictions that last for up to three months, followed by a gradual economic recovery later this year”.
Iata previously estimated up to $113 billion in lost revenue, before countries around the world introduced sweeping travel restrictions that largely eliminated the international air travel market.
Director general and chief executive, Alexandre de Juniac, warned without government help there would be no aviation sector “left standing”.
#Airlines will run out of cash before recovery arrives – the typical airline had 2 months of cash at the start of this year.
— IATA (@IATA) March 24, 2020
“The airline industry faces its gravest crisis,” he said “Within a matter of a few weeks, our previous worst case scenario is looking better than our latest estimates.
“But without immediate government relief measures, there will not be an industry left standing. Airlines need $200 billion in liquidity support simply to make it through. Some governments have already stepped forward, but many more need to follow suit.”
Iata said travel demand later this year would be weakened by the impact of global recession on jobs and confidence and predicted full-year passenger demand would be down 38% compared to 2019.
Capacity in domestic and international markets is also predicted to be down 65% during the second quarter compared to a year-ago period.
Read Iata’s full analysis here