Nearly three million UK travel and tourism jobs could be lost due to prolonged travel restrictions, according to research from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).
The continuation of quarantine measures and blanket anti-travel advisories could result in the loss of $186 billion to UK GDP, a 73% drop in the sector’s output, the WTTC’s economic modelling suggests.
It predicts 1.7m jobs could be saved if restrictions are removed in June and that a worst-case scenario can be avoided if the UK follows a four-point recovery plan.
The worst-case scenario it outlines represents a 142% rise from the 1.2 million jobs WTTC had most recently estimated to be under threat as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
The WTTC also found that the UK would suffer a 73% decline in visitor numbers for international arrivals and 71% for domestic arrivals.
Gloria Guevara, president and chief executive of the WTTC, said: “Our new modelling reveals the depth of the long-term crisis facing the UK travel and tourism industry if travel restrictions, such as the 14-day quarantine measures introduced by government this week and the FCO travel advisory continue for some time.
“The sector’s recovery risks being undermined by heavy-handed restrictions just as it emerges from one of the most punishing periods in its history – and it’s not just airlines who will bear the cost but the entire travel ecosystem.
“Hotels, destinations and travel agents will all suffer from the economic domino effect of prolonged restrictions on movement, plunging millions of travel businesses and their employees into financial ruin.”
The WTTC said a ‘best-case scenario’ can be achieved if the government follows its four-point recovery plan, which includes the immediate removal and replacement of 14-day quarantine measures, with ‘air corridors’ to countries with similar infection rates and the removal of travel advisories against non-essential international travel.
It also urged the adoption of its Safe Travels initiative by tourism destinations across the world, and the implementation of a rapid test and trace strategy while allowing people to travel.
Guevara added: “We’re calling on the government to remove its quarantine policy as soon as possible to minimise the impact to its economy, which is currently putting the UK at a distinct competitive disadvantage.”
WTTC analysis shows the travel and tourism sector contributes 9% of the UK’s GDP and supports 11% of UK employment.