Global tourism recovery from Covid-19 will take three to five years, a new report projects.
Euromonitor International expects airlines to take a minimum of four years to recover, whilst lodging and intermediaries will take even longer.
The forecast is based on the pandemic being contained within a year and demand beginning to rebound in 2021.
Travel is lagging behind other sectors such as consumer goods, retail and packaging when it comes to recovery, according to Euromonitor’s ‘Voice of Industry’ survey.
There are also bigger challenges for the UK, which is also feeling the pressure from the possibility of a no deal Brexit on top of Covid-19.
Caroline Bremner, head of travel research at Euromonitor International, said: “The economy is forecast to contract by 11% in 2020 in the baseline scenario, with a potential rebound in 2021 of 5%, providing that there is not a prolonged period of social distancing measures.
“Unemployment is expected to double to around 8%, which could triple if a worst-case scenario of extended business and consumer restrictions for another year.
“Inbound tourism receipts are expected to fall by 49% in 2020 in a best-case scenario.”
The report is due to be issued on the first day of the virtual version of World Travel Market on November 9.