Bookings to the Canary Islands “jumped enormously” when the UK government lifted quarantine restrictions from October 25, Iata reported.
Iata chief economist Brian Pearce said the sudden leap in bookings confirms restrictions “determine whether people travel”.
He warned that the economic viability of some routes now faced a “real challenge”.
Pearce said: “There are clear signs of a willingness to fly. UK bookings to the Canary Islands when the UK lifted quarantine restrictions, jumped enormously – by 112% year on year. It is evidence that if it is possible to travel, people will.
“The UK government had only just relaxed restrictions on the Canary Islands and we saw a surge in bookings. Then they slapped on the breaks with a lockdown.
“Clearly that is hugely damaging to the travel industry as well as airlines. Jobs will be lost.”
He insisted: “The restrictions are important in determining whether people travel. It makes no difference whether there is a full travel ban or quarantine restrictions.”
Pearce reported: “The recovery in air travel is stalling. The situation has deteriorated rapidly with the surge of new Covid cases in Europe.
“In the US, there is a third upturn in cases, but in China the virus is under control, so it’s leading to very different outcomes.”
He reported international air travel “went into reverse” in September and was 89% down on 2019, whereas domestic air travel globally was 43% down.
Pearce said: “We’re seeing a two-speed recovery. Domestic markets show people want to fly again. International markets are very much restricted even where we have travel bubbles or green lanes.”
Yet Iata’s most-recent market analysis showed Europe remained the most-resilient international passenger market in September.
Pearce said: “In international markets, what recovery we had seen was within Europe. But the increase in Covid cases has led to renewed restrictions.”
He warned: “In the fourth quarter we’ll see a pretty sharp set-back. Europe is going to suffer from the current situation. The whole eco-system needs support.
“Airlines are still burning through cash so the support of governments is critical. The need initially was for life support. Now the challenge is to make routes and networks viable. Yields are so low and costs so high that support is critical.”
Pearce added: “Business travel is extremely low. We survey corporate travel buyers every month and they are telling us their business travel requirements will be less than 10% of normal. Even green lanes are not substantially used.
“That is a real challenge to the economic viability of some long-haul routes and some airline business models. It is a serious concern.
“We revised down our expectations of growth in 2021 [because] it is not clear how effective a vaccine will be. It’s really important to get a testing regime in place.”