US cruise lines look set to be operating again by summer 2021 – and the whole sector should recover to 2019 levels by 2022.
Those were the predictions by experts during the Virtual Clia Cruise Showcase on Wednesday (December 9).
Clia’s global chair, Adam Goldstein (pictured), told Travel Weekly editor-in-chief Lucy Huxley that US cruise lines are communicating closely with the US Centers for Disease Control (US CDC) which makes him hopeful for a resumption after February 28, 2021.
The CDC lifted its no-sail order at the end of October and test cruises are taking place ahead of a full resumption with paying customers.
“Realistically, by midsummer we’ll be operating cruises fairly robustly,” he said.
Paul Charles, founder and chief executive of PC Agency, told the virtual event that various travel sectors will return to 2019 levels at a different pace.
“Aviation will take time, it will be 2024 before it’s back to normal; cruising will be back by the end of 2022 as the pent-up demand is there,” he said.
“Staycations and short-haul will be 80-85% back to normal in 2021 but 2022 will be when we can smile.”
Goldstein said Clia will do its utmost to show how robust its health and safety measures are, and how more than 200 cruises sailed in the Mediterranean in recent months with “virtually no cases” of Covid-19.
Commenting on news today that a Royal Caribbean cruise had to return to Singapore after a passenger tested positive, he said it showed how the monitoring and testing protocols were working well to identify cases.
“We are extremely capable of handling a case when it arises,” he said.
“We will get the point across to the travelling public that they are in the best hands.”
He said there was “tremendous enthusiasm” about Covid-19 vaccines, saying they are the “light at the end of the pandemic tunnel”.
However, until the vaccines have been widely administered and their effects assessed, the current health protocols will remain, he added.
Feedback from passengers who have cruised in the Mediterranean in recent months suggest they are “very pleased” with the experience, despite testing, masks and social distancing.
Charles agreed that vaccinations were the key to boosting consumer confidence but warned this winter will be “cruel” for aviation and cruising.
Long-haul travel and adventure destinations will take longest to recover, but short-haul, cruise and villa holidays will bounce back sooner, he said.