Travellers may choose to travel east in 2021, predicts Huw Williams, managing director of Japan-san
When we are looking to travel, it’s natural to make what are often sweeping generalisations about the countries we might visit. Perceptions about how safe destinations are, whether people will be friendly, the efficiency of transport and concerns about cleanliness and health all affect our choices.
Some of these are stereotypes with little evidence to support them, others are well-founded.
Since March this year we’ve been in the unfortunate position of being fed a daily diet of statistics. Daily Covid cases, deaths and the dreaded ‘R Number’ have dictated our freedoms; whether we can go to work, visit loved ones or go shopping.
We’ve also become used to assessing risk. Much of this may be subjective; but we know that crowded places and meeting what we now understand to be ‘vulnerable people’ should be avoided as far as possible.
We’re not going to cast this concern off easily and, as we approach the traditional peak period, the pent up demand for travel is going to be shaped by our perceptions of risk.
To everyone’s relief, the Covid vaccines will be distributed and administered across the globe; but it’s likely to be the end of 2021 before community immunity will be achieved in most destination markets.
So we’re back to the challenge of assessing risk if we want to travel; and believe me, there are plenty of people that are desperate to travel, me included.
In my view there are two factors that should be considered. The first is, unfortunately, affluence. Does the country have the resources to keep people safe? A well-funded healthcare system will ensure those that succumb to Covid are well cared for. It will also enable the effective distribution of vaccines so that more people are immune and the spread of the virus is controlled.
The second is the challenge of individualism. Studies stretching back to the 1930s have identified societies as having ‘individualist’ or ‘collectivist’ behaviours. Countries that can be broadly categorised as individualistic include most of Western Europe, the US, Canada and Australia. In these countries the interests of the individual take precedence over the collective.
Collectivist countries, where the interests of the group are paramount, tend to be found in Eastern countries. Here, the group, and not the individual, plays a central role. The individual is viewed as being inseparable from one or more social networks. Countries with a collectivist culture include China, South Korea, Japan and Vietnam.
This contrast between countries with individualist or collectivist countries has been highlighted by the challenge of Covid-19.
This was first evident when the prospect of wearing facemasks was first raised in the UK, and especially in the US. The view among many was that this was ‘an infringement of personal liberty’. In collectivist countries, wearing masks had often been well-established; but as a way of protecting others. It was in the interest of society in general, not for personal self-interest.
Then there has been the strategy of imposing lockdowns to help control the spread of Covid-19. This has caused considerable tensions in countries with strong individualistic behaviours. This has been particularly evident in the US, where even the country’s former leadership didn’t support the strategy.
In countries where it has been government policy, such as the UK, France and Italy, there has been considerable dissent, both among leaders, and the general population. The end result is that, for better or worse, social restrictions haven’t been as effective as they have in in countries with strong collectivist cultures. At the time of writing, Covid infection rates in western countries are significantly higher than they are in Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Vietnam are other collectivist societies.
A tendency towards either individualism or collectivism has both advantages and disadvantages for a society. However in a year when Covid has caused so much pain and heartache; I know which way I’ll be heading in 2021.