The world economy is in “a sweet spot” and the travel industry should take advantage, economist DeAnne Julius told the World Travel and Tourism Council Global Summit yesterday.
Julius, former chairman of the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) in London, said: “We have come through the global financial crisis. Recovery has begun to take hold. We’re in the early stages of a sustainable recovery period.”
She told the WTTC Summit in Hainan: “We are in a sweet spot and my advice is to make the most of it.
“It’s a gentle upswing and that is positive for the industry. It’s not a boom, but it feels a lot better than the past five years.”
She forecast global economic growth of “something like 4% this year”, saying: “That is a pretty good backdrop for travel and tourism.”
However, Julius said: “This is probably not the new normal. Things will not be this way forever.
“The eurozone’s economic problems are not yet finished. The debt overhang from the financial crisis remains and will be worked off over the next decade. Interest rates will not stay low.”
She added: “There are risks, most of them political, and there is a worrying increase in civil unrest around the world. That is unlikely to fade away.
“My colleagues at Chatham House worry about US willingness to act as a global policeman [when] there is no other country or set of countries able to provide global security.
“There is a lot of resilience and adaptability in the travel and tourism industry, but we do live in a dangerous time.”